摘要
为了建设清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系,抓住能源变革的关键、把握能源持续健康发展的主动权,将社会—技术系统转型理论应用于能源转型领域,从外部环境、现有能源体制和能源技术利基三个维度构建理论框架入手,结合四川省及其所辖21个市(州)2007—2020年的面板数据建立多样本结构方程模型,实证分析技术创新及其外部环境对能源系统低碳转型的影响效应。研究结果表明:①四川省通过节能降碳领域的技术人才和创新资金投入显著降低了能源系统碳排放水平;②进入新型工业化阶段后四川省经济发展与能源系统碳排放的脱钩趋势日益显现,经济发展通过带动科研资金增加也间接缓解了能源消费扩张对低碳转型的直接阻碍作用;③人口发展一方面通过提供充足的创新人才推动低碳转型,另一方面通过刺激经济发展需求增大能源碳排放,总体上看间接传导效应加剧了自身产生的直接阻碍作用;④在推动技术创新的财政激励政策、影响经济增速的环境规制政策以及带动能源消费的鼓励生育政策的综合运用下,制度性变迁成为推动能源系统低碳转型的重要因素。
In this study,the social-technical system transformation theory has been applied to the domain of energy trans⁃formation in an effort to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient modern energy system,hold the key to this transfor⁃mation and grasp the initiative of sustainable and healthy energy development.Beginning with the construction of theoreti⁃cal framework from three dimensions of external environment,existing energy system and energy technological niche,we built a multi-sample structural equation model in line with the panel data of Sichuan Province and its 21 cities(or prefec⁃tures)from 2007 to 2020.In addition,the influence of both technological innovation and its external environment was em⁃pirically analyzed on this low-carbon transformation.Results show that(i)the carbon-emission level in Sichuan's energy system is greatly reduced through technical talents and innovation fund investment into the energy-conservation and car⁃bon-reduction domain;(ii)the trend that the Sichuan's economic development separates from carbon emission of energy system is increasingly apparent after entering a new stage of industrialization,and this development indirectly alleviates the direct blockage of energy-consumption expansion to low-carbon transformation by increasing funds in scientific research;(iii)on the one hand,population development pushes this transformation by providing sufficient innovative talents,and on the other hand,this increases carbon emission by stimulating the demand of economic development.On the whole,the indi⁃rect transmission effect should sharpen its own direct blockage;and(iv)in the compound context of fiscal incentive poli⁃cies to promote technological innovation,environmental regulatory policies to affect economic growth rate,and family-plan⁃ning encouragement policies to drive energy consumption,the institutional transition serves as a considerable factor to spur the low-carbon transformation of energy system.
作者
李乔楚
陈军华
黄星
杨梅
LI Qiaochu;CHEN Junhua;HUANG Xing;YANG Mei(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610500,China;Sichuan Chuangang Gas Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610017,China;Northern Central Sichuan Gas Production Management Division,PetroChina South-west Oil&Gasfield Company,Suining,Sichuan 629000,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2023年第4期82-88,共7页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘双碳’目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究”(编号:22XGL019)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究”(编号:22&ZD105)
成都市软科学研究项目“‘30·60’“双碳”目标下成都能源利用低碳转型发展路径研究”(编号:2021-RK00-00140-ZF)。
关键词
“双碳”目标
技术创新
四川省
能源系统
低碳转型
社会—技术系统转型
结构方程模型
高质量发展
"Dual-carbon"goal
Technological innovation
Sichuan Province
Energy system
Low-carbon transformation
Social-technical system transformation
Structural equation model
High-quality development
作者简介
李乔楚(1995-),博士,主要从事能源低碳发展、石油工程管理相关研究。E-mail:252651625@qq.com。
