摘要
在不确定环境下,水权制度改革后农户的适应性行为影响水权改革效果。已有研究多把农户看作完全理性行为人,基于有限理性行为假设的农户行为尚缺乏理论分析和定量描述。为此,引入前景理论研究水权总量控制和水权交易条件下农户的适应性行为。以石羊河流域2个灌区为例,分析了农户在灌溉用水总量削减5%、15%、25%条件下的种植结构调整、灌溉面积选择和水权交易行为。发现水权削减条件下,种植小麦和玉米的最优决策为“调整种植结构并购买水权”,最劣决策为“减少灌溉面积”;水权削减对玉米种植前景值的影响大于对小麦种植前景值的影响;不同决策的前景值随用水总量削减比例的变化而单调变化。研究表明:前景理论模型能够较好地描述农户的适应性行为,可为农业水权改革模拟调控提供参考。
In an uncertain environment,the adaptive behavior of farmers after the reform of the water right system affects the reform effect of water rights.Most existing studies have regarded farmers as entirely rational actors,and there is still a lack of theoretical analysis and quantitative description of farmers'behavior based on the assumption of bounded rational behavior.Therefore,prospect theory is introduced to study the adaptive behavior of farmers under the conditions of total water right control and water right trading.Taking two irrigation districts in the Shiyang River Basin into account,this paper analyzes the planting structure adjustment,irrigation area selection,and water right trading behavior of farmers under the conditions of reducing the total irrigation water by 5%,15%,and 25%.It is found that in the condition of water right reduction,the optimal decision for growing wheat and maize is‘adjustment and water purchase’,and the worst decision is‘reducing irrigation area’.The effect of water right reduction on the prospect value of maize is greater than that of wheat.The prospect value of different decisions varies monotonically with the proportion of reduction in water use.The results show that the prospect theory model can better describe the adaptive behavior of farmers and can provide a reference for the simulation and regulation of agricultural water right reform.
作者
万福兵
孙伯明
代小平
WAN Fubing;SUN Boming;DAI Xiaoping(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Jiangsu Province Water Engineering Sci-tech Consulting Co.,Ltd,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2023年第8期109-117,共9页
Pearl River
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(B220201019)。
关键词
前景理论
水权
有限理性
农户适应性行为
石羊河流域
prospect theory
water right
bounded rationality
adaptive behavior of farmers
Shiyang River Basin
作者简介
万福兵(1997-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为水土资源规划管理。E-mail:15638256781@139.com;通信作者:代小平(1982-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为水土资源规划管理。E-mail:xiaop-dai@163.com。
