摘要
提出一种碳中和目标下我国可再生能源大规模发展规划的两阶段多目标优化框架。考虑最大碳减排量与最小发电成本构建可再生能源大规模发展的多目标优化模型,设置碳中和目标达成时间与可再生能源投资总额变化的仿真情景,以考察中国可再生能源的发展趋势,分别利用多目标粒子群算法、多属性决策方法求出非支配解集,选取最优方案。结果显示,按时实现碳中和目标需主要可再生能源累计装机总量达到约8435 GW,光伏、风电、生物质能发电、水电分别约3863 GW、3882 GW、163 GW、527 GW,碳减排贡献分别占37%、53%、5%和5%;应持续大力发展占据主导地位的光伏和风电,但在投资增长情景下生物质能发电、光伏的装机量和碳减排量增长幅度更大,可考虑给予适当政策和投资倾斜。
This paper proposes a two-stage multi-objective optimization framework for the large-scale development of renewable energy in our country under the carbon neutralization goal.A multi-objective optimization model for the large-scale development of renewable energy is constructed considering the maximum carbon reduction and minimum power generation cost,and the simulation scenarios are set for the change of the time to reach the carbon neutral goal and the change of the total investment in renewable energy,so as to investigate the different development trends of China's renewable energy planning.The paper uses the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm and multi-attribute decision method respectively to obtain the non-dominant solution set and select the optimal scheme.The results show that the total installed capacity of major renewable energy sources is about 8435 GW,photovoltaic,wind power,biomass power and hydropower are about 3863 GW,3882 GW,163 GW and 527 GW respectively,and the contribution of carbon emission reduction accounts for 37%,53%,5%and 5%,respectively.It proposes to continuously and vigorously develop photovoltaic and wind power,which occupy a dominant position.However,in the scenario of investment growth,biomass power generation,like photovoltaic,has a larger increase in installed capacity and carbon emission reduction,so appropriate policies and investment inclinations can be considered.
作者
张力菠
吴一锴
王群伟
ZHANG Libo;WU Yikai;WANG Qunwei(Energy Soft Science Research Center,College of Economics&Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics&Astronautics,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211106,China)
出处
《广东电力》
2023年第7期31-39,共9页
Guangdong Electric Power
基金
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(22GLB040)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD110)。
关键词
碳中和
可再生能源发展规划
多目标优化
carbon neutral
renewable energy planning
multi-objective optimization
作者简介
张力菠(1973),男,四川岳池人,教授,博士,主要从事能源经济环境系统建模与仿真、可再生能源规划与政策、能源互联网、碳排放及碳中和等研究,E-mail:zlbzhang@163.com;吴一锴(1998),男,江苏常州人,在读硕士研究生,主要从事能源环境政策与管理等研究,E-mail:1207385790@qq.com;王群伟(1983),男,江苏苏州人,教授,博士,主要从事能源环境经济与管理、低碳运营管理、能源金融和碳市场等研究,E-mail:wqw0305@126.com。
