摘要
为了准确预估三峡库区未来的水文气象变化趋势,为库区水资源的合理分配提供科学依据,借助12种CMIP6全球气候模式数据和多模式集合MME,采用平均值分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、泰勒图分析法和TS评分法,分别从季节月平均气温和降水、突变年份和综合模拟能力评估全球气候模式在万州段的适应性。结果表明:①在降水模拟结果方面,三峡工程蓄水前模式ACCESS-CM2的模拟效果较好,蓄水后MME对降水的模拟效果较好;②在气温模拟结果方面,三峡工程蓄水前MME的模拟效果较好,蓄水后模式ACCESS-CM2的模拟效果较好;③综合来看,模式ACCESS-CM2对蓄水前后气温和降水的模拟效果最好。
To accurately predict the hydrometeorological trends of the Three Gorges reservoir area and provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of water resources,we evaluate the adaptability of 12 CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)global climate models and a multi-model ensemble(MME)to the city of Wanzhou.The evaluation includes analysis of seasonal monthly average precipatation and air temperature,mutation years,and comprehensive simulation abilities using mean value analysis,Mann-Kendall tests,Taylor diagrams and Taylor scores.Our results show that:(1)ACCESS-CM2 models yield better precipitation simulation results prior to impoundment,while MME models show superior performance post-impoundment.(2)MME produces superior temperature simulation results before impoundment,while ACCESS-CM2 exhibits better performance after impoundment.(3)Overall,ACCESS-CM2 demonstrates the best temperature and precipitation simulation results both before and after impoundment.
作者
李佳文
周育琳
魏兴
范祖金
LI Jia-wen;ZHOU Yu-lin;WEI Xing;FANG Zu-jin(School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404100,China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第7期32-40,共9页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1392)
重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN202201210,KJQN202101235)。
作者简介
李佳文(1999-),男,江苏连云港人,硕士研究生,研究方向为气候变化下的水文模拟研究。E-mail:329270553@qq.com;通信作者:周育琳(1992-),女,福建泉州人,讲师,博士,研究方向为水文与水资源。E-mail:zhouyulin@sanxiau.edu.cn。
