摘要
目的构建儿童重症腺病毒肺炎风险预测评分模型并验证其效果。方法回顾性选取2010年1月至2019年12月在江西省儿童医院住院的1046例腺病毒肺炎患儿作为研究对象,根据病情分为重症组和非重症组,运用logistic回归分析重症腺病毒肺炎的风险因素并建立风险预测评分模型,采用受试者工作曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow检验对该模型进行效果验证。结果共有年龄<18.5个月(1分)、患基础病(1分)、热程>6.5 d(3分)、血红蛋白<84.5 g/L(1分)、丙氨酸氨基转移酶>113.5 U/L(1分)、混合细菌感染(2分)6个因素纳入重症腺病毒肺炎风险评分模型。该模型的最佳临界值为3分,曲线下面积为0.862,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示模型预测值和实际观测值间的一致度较好(P=0.937)。该模型的灵敏度、特异度、准确率分别为92.2%、77.1%、86.8%。结论构建的重症腺病毒肺炎风险评分模型具有较好的预测价值,可为重症腺病毒肺炎的防控提供参考。
Objective To construct a risk score model of severe adenovirus pneumonia in children and to validate its value.Methods A total of 1046 hospitalized children with adenovirus pneumonia from Jiangxi Provincial Children's Hospital from January 2010 to December 2019 were selected retrospectively as the research subjects,and they were divided into severe group and non-severe group according to the severity of the disease.Logistic regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors of severe adenovirus pneumonia and to construct a risk scoring model.The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to evaluate and verify the model.Results There were six factors included in the risk score model of severe adenovirus pneumonia in children,namely age<18.5 months(1 point),underlying disease(1 point),thermal course>6.5 d(3 points),hemoglobin<84.5 g/L(1 point),alanine aminotransferase>113.5 U/L(1 point)and co-infection with bacteria(2 points).The best cut-off value of the model was 3 points,the area under the ROC was 0.862.Hosmer-Lemeshow test displayed that the consistency between the predicted value of the model and the actual value was good(P=0.937).The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of the risk model were 92.2%,77.1%and 86.8%,respectively.Conclusion The risk score model of severe adenovirus pneumonia has good predictive value,and can provide reference for clinicians to prevent and control severe adenovirus pneumonia.
作者
蔡莎
陈方根
高美玲
熊艳
刘飞
陈静
CAI Sha;CHEN Fanggen;GAO Meiling;XIONG Yan;LIU Fei;CHEN Jing(Department of Infectious Diseases,Jiangxi Provincial Children's Hospital,Jiangxi Province,Nanchang330006,China)
出处
《中国当代医药》
CAS
2023年第18期93-97,105,共6页
China Modern Medicine
基金
江西省重点研发计划项目(20202BBGL73025)。
关键词
重症
腺病毒肺炎
风险
评分模型
Severe
Adenovirus pneumonia
Risk
Score model
作者简介
蔡莎(1990-),女,硕士,研究方向:儿童感染性疾病;通讯作者:高美玲(1988-),女,硕士,研究方向:儿童感染性疾病。
