摘要
【目的】探究黑河中游绿洲气候变化特征对玉米产量的影响,并提出相应管理对策。【方法】采用线性回归分析、产量分解等方法分析了张掖市临泽县1967~2020年气候变化和玉米产量变化的趋势,并运用多元线性回归分析方法建立了玉米气象产量与各气象因子的相关性模型。【结果】1967~2020年黑河中游绿洲平均气温、累计降水量和累计日照时长均呈上升趋势,上升幅度分别为0.38℃/10 a、3.01 mm/10 a、2.02 h/10 a;玉米气象产量呈现出不规则且幅度较大的波动,玉米气象产量与降水量、累计日照时长2个气象因子呈现正相关关系,与气温呈现负相关关系,偏回归系数分别为0.295,0.354和-0.405;根据多元回归分析模型预测,至2030年玉米气象产量将达到-47.85 kg/hm^(2),气象条件将成为制约玉米产量提高的主要因素。【结论】在黑河中游绿洲特殊的区域气候条件下,提高灌溉效率、引进抗逆抗旱品种、加强田间管理技术研究等是玉米产量稳步提高最为有效的措施。
【Objective】To study the characteristics of climate change and its impact on maize yield in the oasis in the middle reaches of the Heihe River,and to propose management countermeasures.【Method】The trend of climate change and maize yield change in Linze County,Zhangye City from 1967 to 2020 was analyzed by linear regression analysis and yield decomposition,and the correlation model between maize meteorological yield and various meteorological factors was established by using multiple linear regression analysis.【Result】From 1967 to 2020,the average temperature,cumulative precipitation and cumulative sunshine duration in the oasis in the middle reaches of the Heihe River showed an increasing trend,with the increasing ranges of 0.38℃/10a,3.01 mm/10a and 2.02 h/10a respectively.The meteorological yield of maize showed irregular and large fluctuations.The meteorological yield of maize showed positive correlation with precipitation and cumulative sunshine duration,and negative correlation with temperature.The partial regression coefficients were 0.295,0.354 and-0.405 respectively.According to the prediction of the multiple regression analysis model,the meteorological yield of maize will reach-47.85 kg/hm^(2)by 2030.Meteorological conditions will become the main factor limiting the increase of maize yield.【Conclusion】Under the special regional climatic conditions of the Heihe middle reaches oasis,improving irrigation efficiency,developing and introducing stress resistant and drought-resistant varieties,and strengthening the research into field management technology are the most effective measures to steadily improve the maize yield.
作者
陈海志
胡广录
李嘉楠
麻进
焦娇
CHEN Haizhi;HU Guanglu;LI Jianan;MA Jin;JIAO Jiao(College of Environmental and Municipal Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key Laboratory of Yellow River Water Environment in Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Research Institute,Lanzhou 730020,China)
出处
《甘肃农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2023年第2期137-144,154,共9页
Journal of Gansu Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41561102,41867074)
甘肃省水利厅水资源费预算项目(甘水建管发〔2019〕255号)。
关键词
气候变化
玉米产量
多元线性回归分析
黑河中游绿洲
climate change
maize yield
multiple linear regression analysis
oasis in the middle reaches of Heihe River
作者简介
第一作者:陈海志,硕士研究生。E-mail:2223798675@qq.com;通信作者:胡广录,博士,教授,研究方向为生态水文及生态修复。E-mail:hgl0814@163.com。
