摘要
目的 描述和预测中国多囊卵巢综合征(polycystic ovary syndrome,PCOS)发病率情况,并探讨其随年龄、时期、队列三因素的变化趋势,为该病的防治提供参考依据。方法 选取2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库中1990—2019年10~<55岁中国PCOS发病率数据,灰色预测模型对该病发病率进行预测,年龄-时期-队列模型(age-period-cohort,APC)估算中国PCOS发病率的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果 据预测,截至2023年,中国标化发病率将达到14/10万,且10~<15岁发病率将反超15~<20岁。APC模型分析显示,1990—2019年,中国PCOS发生风险的年龄效应为随年龄增长先增加后降低(Coef:2.447~2.879~-2.437)。时期效应为随着年份的增加先增加后降低(Coef:0.192~0.2776~-0.483)。队列效应随出生队列的发展逐步上升(Coef:-0.698~1.404)。结论 1990-2019年,中国PCOS发病率总体上升趋势,年轻女性发病率上涨趋势严重,需加强对年轻女性PCOS的关注与筛查,重点加强10~<20岁人群的一级预防,降低PCOS发病率。
Objective To describe and predict the incidence of polycystic ovary syndrome(PCOS),and to explore the incidence trends with age,period and cohort,so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of PCOS.Methods The incidence data of PCOS in Chinese women aged 10~<55 years from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange(GHDx),and the gray prediction model was used to predict the incidence of PCOS,and the age-period-cohort(APC)model was used to estimate the age,period and cohort effects on the incidence of PCOS among Chinese women.Results It was predicted that the standardized incidence rate of PCOS in Chinese women would reach 14/100000,and the incidence rate among women aged 10~<15 years would exceed that in women aged 15~<20 years by 2023.APC model analysis showed that,from 1990 to 2019,the age effect on the risk of PCOS in Chinese women tended to increase followed by a decrease(Coef:2.447~2.879~−2.437),and the same trend was observed in period effect(Coef:0.192~0.2776~−0.483).While,the cohort effect showed a significant upward trend(Coef:−0.698~1.404).Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the overall incidence of PCOS in Chinese females shows a significant upward trend,especially among younger women.Therefore,it is necessary to enhance screening of PCOS in young women of age 10~<20 years old in order to reduce the incidence of PCOS in Chinese women.
作者
柳丽佳
邵铜
方媛
朱欢欢
宋晓青
魏晋才
LIU Lijia;SHAO Tong;FANG Yuan;ZHU Huanhuan;SONG Xiaoqing;WEI Jincai(School of Public Health and Management of Wenzhou Medical University,Wenzhou,Zhengjiang 325035,China;不详)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期259-263,共5页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
作者简介
柳丽佳,硕士研究生在读,主要从事公共卫生与卫生政策研究;通信作者:魏晋才,E-mail:prcctv@hotmail.com。
