摘要
目的了解1990-2019年中国20~84岁人群胰腺癌的发病趋势,分析年龄、时期和出生队列效应对中国胰腺癌发病率变化的影响。方法利用全球健康数据交换库收集1990-2019年中国20~84岁人群胰腺癌的发病数据并计算中标率,采用Joinpoint软件分析胰腺癌标化发病率的变化趋势,应用年龄-时期-队列模型对数据进行拟合,利用内生因子算法估计年龄、时期和队列参数效应。结果1990-2019年,20~84岁人群胰腺癌标化发病率从1990年的4.54/10万上升至2019年的7.95/10万,增长了75.11%;男性胰腺癌标化发病率从5.47/10万上升至10.04/10万,增长了83.55%;女性胰腺癌标化发病率从3.63/10万上升至5.91/10万,增长了62.81%。男性胰腺癌标化发病率的平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)为2.10%(95%CI:1.78%~2.41%),女性胰腺癌标化发病率的AAPC为1.71%(95%CI:1.55%~1.87%)。APC模型结果显示,胰腺癌发病风险的年龄效应和时期效应呈递增趋势,发病风险的队列效应呈递减趋势,差异均有统计学意义,P<0.05。其中男性和女性均为20~24岁年龄组发病风险最小,效应值分别为-2.82和-2.35;80~84岁年龄组发病风险最大,效应值分别为1.44和1.66;1992年时期效应最低,效应值分别为-0.61和-0.45,2017年时期效应最高,效应值分别为0.57和0.43;1908-1912年出生的男性胰腺癌发病风险最高,为1.01。结论中国20~84岁人群胰腺癌发病率呈上升趋势,胰腺癌发病风险随年龄和时期的增加而增长,随出生队列的增加而降低,今后应加强对中老年人群的胰腺癌防控工作,进一步减轻我国胰腺癌的疾病负担。
Objective To understand the trendency of pancreatic cancer incidence in Chinese population aged 20-84 years from 1990 to 2019,and to analyze the effects of age,period and birth cohort effect on the change of pancreatic cancer incidence in China.Methods The incidence data of pancreatic cancer in China aged 20-84 years from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Health Data Interchange and Chinese standarized morbidity rate was calculated.Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trend of standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer.The age-period-cohort model was used to fit the data,and the effect of age,period and cohort parameters was estimated by IE algorithm.Results From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence rate of pancreatic cancer among people aged 20-84 increased from 4.54/100000 in 1990 to 7.95/100000 in 2019,with an increase of 75.11%;The standardized incidence rate of male pancreatic cancer increased from 5.47/100000 to 10.04/100000,an increase of 83.55%;the standardized incidence rate of female pancreatic cancer increased from 3.63/100000 to 5.91/100000,an increase of 62.81%.The mean annual percentage change(AAPC)of the standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer of male was 2.10%(95%CI:1.78%-2.41%),and the AAPC value of the standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer of female was 1.71%(95%CI:1.55%-1.87%).Age-period-cohort model showed that the risk of pancreatic cancer incidence tended to increase with age effect and period effect,and the cohort effect of incidence risk showed a decreasing trend.All differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The incidence risk of men and women in the age group of 20-24years old was the smallest,and the effect values were-2.82and-2.35,respectively;The age group of 80-84years old had the greatest risk of disease,and the effect values were 1.44and 1.66,respectively;the period effect was the lowest in 1992,and the effect values were-0.61and-0.45,respectively.The period effect was the highest in 2017,and the effect values were 0.57and 0.43respectively;Men born between1908and 1912had the highest risk of pancreatic cancer,and the effect value was 1.01.Conclusions The incidence of pancreatic cancer is on the rise in the Chinese population aged 20-84years.Pancreatic cancer risk increases with age and period and decreases with birth cohort.Prevention and control of pancreatic cancer in middle-aged and elderly population should be strengthened in the future to further reduce the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in China.
作者
冯程程
许传志
何杰宇
梁雪萌
孙浩
常巍
FENG Cheng-cheng;XU Chuan-zhi;HE Jie-yu;LIANG Xue-meng;SUN Hao;CHANG Wei(Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Kunming Medical University,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《中华肿瘤防治杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第18期1323-1329,共7页
Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment
基金
2020年云南省科技厅-昆明医科大学应用基础研究联合专项[2019FE001(-178)]
作者简介
第一作者:冯程程,女,山东泰安人,硕士,主要从事慢性病预防与控制方向的研究工作。E-mail:1783343512@qq.com;通信作者:常巍,女,云南昭通人,博士,副教授,主要从事肿瘤和心理流行病方向的研究工作。E-mail:1397978466@qq.com
