摘要
提高产能利用率对于化解过剩产能、优化产业结构和促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文利用中国工业企业数据和海关贸易数据,系统考察了出口多元化对中国制造业企业产能利用率的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明,出口多元化水平的提升显著提高了企业的产能利用率;从传导机制来看,供给侧的提高生产效率机制与需求侧的推动出口扩张机制是出口多元化促进企业产能利用率提升的重要渠道;进一步研究发现,出口多元化对民营企业和非加工贸易企业产能利用率的提升效应更为明显。本文还比较了不同类型出口多元化策略的相对有效性,发现与出口产品多元化相比,出口市场多元化策略在更大程度上提高了企业产能利用率。本文的研究对于如何有效制定出口策略、化解产能过剩问题具有一定的政策启示价值。
With the development of China's economy,the phenomenon of overcapacity has gradually evolved into a high-end,global,and long-term deep-seated problem,which not only reduces enterprise performance and aggravates the inefficient allocation of resources,but also restricts the upgrading of the economic structure,hindering the sustainable,healthy,and coordinated economic development of a country or region.The Chinese government and related departments attach great importance to the problem of overcapacity;after nearly a decade of efforts,in 2021 China's industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 77.5%.However,since the outbreak of COVID-19,China's economic recovery has been uneven,and heavy industries such as coal,steel,and non-ferrous industries have taken the lead in recovering.In addition,affected by the rapid rise of commodity prices in world market,some departments and local governments have been increasingly motivated to launch energy-intensive and high-emission projects,resulting in a new round of overcapacity risk.In this context,it is of great importance to explore how to resolve excess capacity and improve the utilization of the Chinese manufacturing capacity.Based on firm-level micro data and highly disaggregated customs data from 2000 to 2013,this paper analyzes the impact of export diversification on the capacity utilization of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.The results show that the improvement of export diversification significantly enhances enterprises'capacity utilization.The results of the mechanism tests indicate that export diversification improves capacity utilization through several channels,including productivity improvement from the supply side and export expansion from the demand side.Further analysis shows that the impact of export diversification on capacity utilization is more evident among private enterprises and non-purely processing trade enterprises.In addition,this paper also compares the relative effectiveness of different types of export diversification strategies,and finds that export market diversification improves enterprises'capacity utilization to a greater extent than export product diversification.The results of this paper have important policy implications.First,in terms of export market diversification,the government should vigorously promote the construction of a diversified international trade network while maintaining economic and trade relations with developed countries,encourage enterprises to gradually develop the markets of developing countries,and strengthen economic and trade exchanges with countries and regions along the“Belt and Road Initiative”.Second,in terms of export product diversification,the government should guide enterprises to diversify their export products and optimize their internal export structure.Third,considering the different effects of export diversification on different types of enterprises,it is not advisable to increase the number of export markets and expand marginal products blindly;on the contrary,it is recommended to comprehensively consider the situation,production capacity,and organizational management capabilities of enterprises,and tailor appropriate export development strategies for different industries and enterprises.The contributions of this paper relate mainly to four aspects.First,this paper is the first to systematically study the effect of export diversification on Chinese manufacturing capacity utilization using the latest micro-level data,thereby enriching and expanding the literature on the governance of excess capacity to some extent.Second,in terms of index measurement,this paper applies the modified production function method to accurately measure enterprises'capacity utilization at the micro level,constructs an export diversification index based on the two dimensions of export market diversification and export product diversification,further distinguishing these two diversification strategies.This is helpful to scientifically evaluate the overall level and trend of China's capacity utilization rate and export diversification.Third,in terms of mechanism,this paper deeply investigates the micro-level mechanism of influence of export diversification on capacity utilization from the perspectives of production efficiency from the supply side and export expansion from the demand side,which is helpful to deepen the understanding of the intrinsic relationship between export diversification and capacity utilization.Fourth,in terms of policy support,this study provides useful policy reference for the government to formulate more effective export strategies to improve enterprise performances and resolve excess capacity,which has both important theoretical value and practical significance to improve the overall efficiency of the national economic system.
作者
毛其淋
钟一鸣
MAO Qilin;ZHONG Yiming(Center for Transnationals'Studies,Nankai University;School of Economics,Nankai University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期113-135,共23页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073074)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72203110)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AZD054)
2022年度中国科协科技智库青年人才计划(20220615ZZ07110265)的资助。
关键词
出口多元化
产能利用率
产能过剩
Export Diversification
Capacity Utilization Rate
Excess Capacity
作者简介
毛其淋,教授、博士生导师,南开大学跨国公司研究中心、经济学院,电子邮箱:maoqilin@nankai.edu.cn;通讯作者:钟一鸣,博士研究生,南开大学经济学院,电子邮箱:zhongyiming@mail.nankai.edu.cn。
