摘要
根据“中国家庭追踪调查”数据以及省级层面数据,运用多元有序回归分析、中介效应检验等方法,分析2014-2018年中国人口老龄化对当地家庭教育期望的影响及其路径。结果表明:地区老龄化的加深通过结构性就业问题和父母养老策略的中介效应,最终提升了当地家庭的教育期望,这一结论在经过稳健性及内生性检验后依然成立。这表明在老龄化的冲击之下,教育仍然具有较强的风险防范功能。进一步的异质性分析表明,这一效应主要作用于城市地区、父母受教育程度高、收入水平高、养老意识强、地区宗族观念强的优势阶层家庭,而对于另一组弱势阶层家庭的影响并不明显,这意味着优势阶层家庭更重视子女的教育状况,这一结论可能会导致我国教育不平等问题的进一步加剧。
Based on the data of the"China Family Panel Studies"aand provincial-level data,this paper uses a multiple ordinal regression model and mediating effect to analyze the impact of China's population aging on local family education aspiration and its path from 2014 to 2018.The results show that the deepening of regional aging,through the mediating effect of structural employment problems and parental pension strategies,ultimately increases the educational aspiration of local families.This conclusion still holds after robustness and endogeneity tests.This shows that under the impact of aging,education stil has a strong risk prevention function.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that this effect mainly affects the families of the superior class in urban areas,who have high education level,high income level,strong awareness of old-age care,and strong regional clan concept.Obviously,this means that advantaged families pay more attention to the educational problems of their children,which may lead to further aggravation of educational inequality in China.
作者
陈武元
陈名灏
蔡庆丰
吴冠琛
Chen Wuyuan;Chen Minghao;Cai Qingfeng;Wu Guanchen(Institute of Education,Xiamen University;School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005)
出处
《教育发展研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期35-44,共10页
Research in Educational Development
基金
国家社科基金后期资助项目“教育公平与共同富裕研究——家庭教育期望的研究视角”(22FJKB002)的部分成果。
关键词
人口老龄化
家庭教育期望
就业问题
养老策略
教育不平等
aging of population
family education aspiration
employment problem
pension strategy
education inequality
