摘要
目的分析西藏自治区包虫病的流行趋势,为包虫病的监测和防治提供数据资料。方法收集公共卫生科学数据共享中心2001—2018年全国各省、自治区、直辖市的包虫病发病率数据,利用Joinpoint回归分析模型估计西藏年发病率变化趋势;以2001—2009年为第一时间段,2010—2018年为第二时间段,用地理信息系统分析空间变化趋势。结果2001—2018年西藏包虫病发病率呈递增趋势,平均年度变化百分比为36.6;同期全国呈先快后慢递增趋势,平均年度变化百分比分别为75.31和5.45。西藏在第二时间段平均发病率(4.46/10万)于第一时间段(0.14/10万),第一时间段和第二时间段全国各省、自治区、直辖市平均发病率Moran’s I指数分别为0.108(Z=2.090,P<0.05)和0.154(Z=2.948,P<0.05),均存在空间正相关性;局部空间自相关表明西藏在第二时间段呈“高-高”关联模式;Getis’G结果显示西藏在两个时间段均为热点地区。结论西藏的包虫病发病率2001—2018年间呈递增趋势,建议加强科学监测,严格落实个性化防控措施,制定相关应急处置预案。
Objective To analyze the epidemic trend of echinococcosis in Xizang Autonomous Region,and to provide basic data for the surveillance,prevention and control of echinococciosis.Methods The data of echinococcosis incidence of each province,autonomous region and municipality in China from 2001 to 2018 was collected from the Public Health Science Data Sharing Center,and the annual incidence trend in Xizang was estimated by Joinpoint regression analysis model.The data was analyzed by two time periods,2001-2009 years,2010-2018 years.The spatial trend of echinococcosis was analyzed by Global Moranly’s I statistic and hotspot analysis was carried out using Geographic Information System(GIS).Results From 2001 to 2018,the incidence of echinococcosis in Xizang showed an increasing trend,with an average annual change percentage(AAPC)of 36.6.During the same period,the national data showed a trend of increasing first and then slowly,with an average annual change percentage of 75.31 and 5.45.The average incidence in Xizang in the second period was higher(4.46/100000)than that in the first period(0.14/100000).During the both periods,Global Moran’s I analysis of the average incidence in China was 0.108(Z=2.090,P<0.05)and 0.154(Z=2.948,P<0.05),there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation.Local Moran’s I identified that Xizang appeared a"high-high"correlation model in the second period.Hotspot analysis revealed that Xizang was identified as a"hotspot"region in both periods.Conclusion The incidence of echinococcosis was increased from 2001 to 2018 in Xizang.It was suggested to strengthen the scientific monitoring of echinococcosis in Xizang,strictly implement prevention and control measures,and formulate relevant emergency response prescheme.
作者
赵哲
张淑媛
赵晨锡
张文凯
次仁潘多
李丽
刘昆
龙泳
ZHAO Zhe;ZHANG Shuyuan;ZHAO Chenxi;ZHANG Wenkai;CIREN Panduo;LI Li;LIU Kun;LONG Yong(Department of Public Health,Gansu University of Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou,Gansu 730000,China;不详)
出处
《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》
CAS
2023年第1期92-95,共4页
Chinese Journal of Frontier Health and Quarantine
基金
军队后勤科研计划重点项目(BWS20J020)
军队医学科技青年培育计划拔尖项目(21QNPY087)。
关键词
包虫病
发病率
回归分析
空间分析
Echinococcosis
Incidence
Regression analysis
Spatial analysis
作者简介
通信作者:龙泳,E-mail:longyong71@163.com。
