摘要
工业是中国能源消耗和碳排放的主要领域,工业园区则是工业发展的重要载体和强大引擎,也是实现碳达峰碳中和目标的重要抓手。通过分析国内低碳园区发展现状,以国内某开发区为例开展案例研究,摸清了其能源结构及碳排放特征,采用IPAT模型对开发区未来碳排放进行了初步的预测。通过3种情景分析发现,在合理发展经济的同时重视能源强度的下降和能源结构的优化,则会让园区的碳排放峰值提前,产业结构、能源强度和能源结构是影响开发区碳排放峰值的关键因素。调整园区产业结构、优化园区用能结构和完善园区低碳管理制度将会成为未来开发区实现“双碳”目标的重点任务。
Industry is the main field of energy consumption and carbon emission in China, while industrial parks are important carriers and powerful engines for industrial development, and also important graspers for achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. By analyzing the current situation of low-carbon park development in China and conducting a case study with a domestic development zone as an example, we have mapped out its energy structure and carbon emission characteristics and made a preliminary prediction of the future carbon emission of the development zone by using IPAT model. Through the analysis of three scenarios, it is found that a reasonable development of the economy while paying attention to the reduction of energy intensity and the optimization of energy structure will bring forward the peak of carbon emissions in the park, and the industrial structure, energy intensity and energy structure are the key factors affecting the peak of carbon emissions in the development zone. Adjusting the industrial structure, optimizing the energy use structure and improving the low-carbon management system of the park will be the key tasks to achieve the "double carbon" goal in the future.
作者
王伟
吴晓方
罗斌华
WANG Wei;WU Xiaofang;LUO Binhua(Jiangxi Institute of Ecological Civilization,Nanchang 330096,China;Energy Research Institute,Jiangxi Academy of Science,Nanchang 330096,China)
出处
《能源研究与管理》
2022年第4期17-22,共6页
Energy Research and Management
基金
江西省科技计划项目(20213BAA10W19)
江西省智库研究项目(22ZK28)
江西省社会科学基金项目(22ST06)
碳达峰背景下的二氧化碳和大气污染物协同控制机制研究——以江西省电力和水泥行业为例(2022YJC2010)
江西省科学院省级财政科研项目经费包干制试点示范项目“基于省级碳达峰实施方案‘双碳’目标的社会转型发展协同效益及成本研究——以江西省为例”(2022YSBG22016)
江西省钢铁行业碳排放达峰预测研究(2021YSBG21023)
江西省水泥行业碳排放达峰预测研究(JXZK-2020-04)。
关键词
开发区
碳排放
低碳发展
峰值预测
development zone
carbon emission
low-carbon development
peak forecast
作者简介
第一作者:王伟(1979-),男,高级经济师,本科,主要从事发展规划、新型城镇化、生态文明建设和绿色低碳发展政策研究。E-mail:22478562@qq.com。
