摘要
在气候变化和人类活动影响下,内陆河流域出山径流变异程度提升,研究径流预测及其对气候变化响应具有理论和实践的双重意义。以讨赖河流域上游为研究区,采用Delta降尺度及权重集成方法对14种GCMs在3种RCP情景下的气温和降水进行优化,预测分析了该区未来径流变化和水资源供需平衡。结果表明:由气候-生态联合驱动的径流预测模式在讨赖河流域适用性良好,气温对出山径流总体呈负减效应,降水和NDVI表现为正增效应。未来气温和降水呈增加趋势,增温主要发生在河谷地带,降水增加在分水岭周边更为显著。流域出山径流总体增加,不同子区径流变幅从小到大依次为OL06<OL04<OL05<OL01<OL03<OL02。尽管未来出山径流有所增加,但从水资源满足度来看,平、枯水年讨赖河流域仍存在水资源短缺问题。
Affected by climate change and human activities,mountainous discharge has undergone dramatic variability in inland river basins.Forecasting mountainous discharge and investigating its response to climate change are of great significance in both research and practice.The future runoff change and the supply-demand balance of water resources in Taolai River Basin were predicted and analyzed by optimizing 14 of the GCMs(Global Climate Models)outputs under three RCP scenarios to determine future air temperature and precipitation using the Delta downscaling and weight-based integration methods.The calibrated climate-ecological driving module is suitable for the mountainous discharge simulation in Taolai River Basin.Negative impacts of air temperature and positive impacts of precipitation and NDVI are also found.GCMs outputs indicate an overall increase of mountainous air temperature and precipitation,of which the former is mainly found in valleys while the latter more remarkable near the drainage divide.Mountainous discharge in the studied basin displays an overall increasing trend,and the variation amplitude in different sub-areas follow the sequence of OL06,OL04,OL05,OL01,OL03 and OL02 from small to large.Despite the increase of mountainous discharge,water shortage still exists during normal and dry hydro-years under the three RCP scenarios.
作者
武磊
李奋华
李常斌
武建
吕佳南
谢旭红
魏健美
周璇
WU Lei;LI Fen-hua;LI Chang-bin;WU Jian;Lü Jia-nan;XIE Xu-hong;WEI Jian-mei;ZHOU Xuan(Colllege of Earth and Environment Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems of Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Water Resources Bureau of Taolai River Basin in Gansu Province,Jiuquan 735000,China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期41-49,共9页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室开放基金
兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(lzujbky-2020-kb01)
甘肃省科技重大专项计划项目(20ZD7FA005)
关键词
气候变化
GCMs降尺度
出山径流预测
不确定性
水资源满足度
climate change
GCMs downscaling
mountainous discharges forecasting
uncertainty
water resources satisfaction
作者简介
武磊(1994-),男,山西晋中人,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E-mail:wul17@lzu.edu.cn;通信作者:李奋华(1970-),男,甘肃酒泉人,正高级工程师,主要从事流域水资源管理研究。E-mail:347357006@qq.com。
