摘要
研究气候变化背景下潜在蒸散发(ET_(0))的演变特征,有助于了解水循环演变机理,为区域水资源规划管理提供理论依据。基于青海湖流域及周边7个气象站1960—2016年逐日气象数据,利用Penman-Monteith模型计算ET_(0),运用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法、Hurst指数趋势预测、敏感性分析对流域ET_(0)的变化特征及其影响因素进行了分析,并计算了各气象因子对ET_(0)变化的贡献率。结果表明:青海湖流域年平均ET_(0)为874.63 mm,线性倾向率为2.27 mm·10 a^(-1),整体呈缓慢上升趋势;ET_(0)对各气象因子的敏感系数按照绝对值由高到低排列为|相对湿度|>|日照时数|>|最高气温|>|风速|>|最低气温|;各气象因子对ET_(0)变化的贡献率按照绝对值由高到低排列为|最高气温|>|风速|>|最低气温|>|日照时数|>|相对湿度|;ET_(0)与其各影响因子的相关系数绝对值由高到低分别为|相对湿度|>|最高气温|>|日照时数|>|风速|>|最低气温|。综上,青海湖流域ET_(0)对相对湿度最为敏感,而最高气温是1960—2016年间ET_(0)变化的主要贡献因子。最高气温的显著上升、平均风速的显著下降以及其他因子综合作用,导致了青海湖流域ET_(0)增加,未来ET_(0)仍可能呈上升趋势。
In the context of global climate change,research on the evolution characteristics of potential evapotranspiration(ET_(0))is conducive to understanding the evolution mechanism of water cycle,and provide theoretical basis for regional water resources planning and management.Based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2016 in 7 meteorological stations in and around Qinghai Lake Basin,this study calculated and analyzed the variation and driving forces of ET_(0)by Penman-Monteith Model,Mann-Kendall trend test,Hurst index,and sensitivity analysis.The contribution rate of each meteorological factor to ET_(0)evolution was obtained.The ET_(0)in Qinghai Lake Basin showed a slight upward trend,with a climatic tendency rate of 2.27 mm·decade-1 and a multi-year of 874.63mm.The sensitivity coefficient of ET_(0)to each meteorological factor in order of absolute value was|relative humidity|>|sunshine hours|>|maximum air temperature|>|wind speed|>|minimum air temperature|.The contribution rate of each meteorological factor to ET_(0)change in the order of absolute value was|maximum air temperature|>|wind speed|>|minimum air temperature|>|sunshine hours|>|relative humidity|.The correlation coefficient between ET_(0)and each influence factor from high to low in the order of absolute value was|relative humidity|>|maximum air temperature|>|sunshine hours|>|wind speed|>|minimum air temperature|.Above all,relative humidity was the most sensitive meteorological factor to ET_(0).Moreover,maximum temperature was the main contributing factor to ET_(0)change from 1960 to 2016.ET_(0)was increased due to the significant increase of maximum air temperature and the significant decrease of mean wind speed,and other factors combined.What s more,ET_(0)may continue to increase in the future in Qinghai Lake Basin.
作者
方健梅
蒋丽伟
余新晓
周金星
郑桂莲
FANG Jianmei;JIANG Liwei;YU Xinxiao;ZHOU Jinxing;ZHENG Guilian(Academy of Forestry Inventory and Planning,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100714,China;School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《湖南林业科技》
2022年第5期13-20,共8页
Hunan Forestry Science & Technology
基金
国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201404308)。
关键词
气候变化
潜在蒸散发
时空变化
敏感性分析
贡献率
global climate change
potential evapotranspiration
spatial-temporal change
sensitivity analysis
contribution rate
作者简介
第一作者:方健梅(1987-),女,博士,主要从事流域生态水文、林草调查规划设计、生态保护等研究,E-mail:jmf46@163.com;通讯作者:周金星,教授,E-mail:zjx9277@126.com。
