摘要
[目的]探寻合适的预测模型预测山东省卫生技术人员数量,为卫生人力的科学规划提供参考依据。[方法]建立GM(1,1)模型以及灰色-回归耦合模型,通过比较平均相对误差选择精度最佳的模型,并对2021-2025年山东省卫生技术人员的相对数量进行预测。[结果]应用灰色-回归耦合模型预测2025年山东省的每千人口卫生技术人员数、注册护士数分别为9.45人、4.40人,平均相对误差分别为2.12%、3.26%;应用GM(1,1)模型预测2025年山东省的每千人口执业(助理)医师数为4.19人,平均相对误差为2.67%,预测精度较高。[结论]不同数据的适用性不同,应基于原始资料的特点选择最优预测模型。山东省的卫生技术人员相对数将继续增长,卫生人才结构需进一步优化。
Objective To explore an appropriate prediction model to predict the number of health technicians in Shandong Province so as to provide a reference basis for the scientific planning of health manpower.Methods GM(1,1)and grey-regression coupling model were constructed.By comparing the average relative error,the model with the best accuracy was selected to predict the relative number of health technicians in Shandong Province from 2021 to 2025.Results The grey-regression coupling model was used to predict that the number of health technicians and registered nurses per 1000 population in Shandong Province in 2025 would be 9.45 and 4.40 respectively,the average relative errors was 2.12%and 3.26%respectively;GM(1,1)model was used to predict that the number of licensed(assistant)doctors per 1000 population in 2025 would be 4.19,and the average relative error was 2.67%with high prediction accuracy.Conclusions Due to the applicability of different data,the optimal prediction model should be selected based on the characteristics of the original data.The relative number of health technicians in Shandong Province will continue to grow,and the structure of health talents needs to be further optimized.
作者
商茜茜
井淇
李文君
孙舒悦
欧阳筱瑶
滕文杰
SHANG Qian-qian;JING Qi;LI Wen-jun;SUN Shu-yue;OUYANG Xiao-yao;TENG Wen-jie(School of Public Health,Weifang Medical University,Weifang Shandong 261053,China;School of Management,Weifang Medical University,Weifang Shandong 261053,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of“Healthy Shandong”Serious Social Risk Forecasting and Governance,Weifang Shandong 261053,China)
出处
《卫生软科学》
2022年第10期61-65,共5页
Soft Science of Health
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2020QG057)
山东省社会科学规划研究项目(19CQXJ12)
山东省高等学校科研发展计划重点项目(J17RA231)。
关键词
灰色模型
线性回归模型
卫生技术人员
预测
grey model
linear regression model
health technicians
prediction
作者简介
商茜茜(1998-),女,山东济南人,在读硕士研究生,主要从事卫生统计方面的研究;通信作者:滕文杰(1972-),女,山东潍坊人,硕士,教授,主要从事卫生统计方面的研究。
