摘要
目的:预测上海地区甲肝的发病趋势。方法:利用上海市甲肝发病资料,应用SAS软件建立灰色模型GM(1,1)来预测本市甲肝的发病率。结果:上海地区甲肝发病率(/10万)的灰色预测模型为:x^(1)(k+1)=-122.54e-0.158 3k+148.61,拟合检验显示本模型精度等级为2级,可以应用于预测上海市甲肝未来的发病率。结论:灰色模型拟合和预测的结果显示上海市甲肝发病率保持持续下降的趋势。
Objective ：To forecast the incidence of hepatitis A in Shanghai. Methods： The grey model GM （ 1, 1 ） was established and incidence in future 5 years were forecasted based on the incidence of hepatitis A in Shanghai from 1990 to 2005. Results： The grey model established the forecasting equation as x^（1）（k＋1）=-122.54e-0.158 3k＋148.61 . The goodness of fit test indicated that the precision （degree 2） was identified. The grey model could be used to forecast incidence trend of hepatitis A. Conclusion： The results indicated that the incidence of hepatitis A in Shanghai declines gradually according to forecasting of GM （ 1,1 ）.
出处
《中国卫生资源》
2012年第4期329-331,共3页
Chinese Health Resources
基金
上海市卫生局基金资助项目
项目编号:2010186
作者简介
朱奕奕（1976-），女，上海市人，博士研究生。主要从事传染病流行病学研究。
【通讯作者】徐飚，E-mail：bxu@shmu．edu．cn。
