摘要
台风灾害给浙江省造成了严重的生命和财产损失。本文以浙江省的县域为研究单元,通过对2009-2020年台风灾害灾情数据的分析,结合降水数据、风场数据、地形数据、河网数据和统计年鉴等资料,研究了台风灾情时空分布特征。在此基础上,运用地理探测器方法分析了台风灾情的影响因素。结果表明,2009-2020年共有27个台风登陆或影响浙江省,其中12个超强台风造成的损失最严重,而灾害损失严重地区主要分布在浙江省东南部沿海地区。台风灾害致灾因子、孕灾环境因子和人类活动因子中,台风最大风速、三日内最大降水量和距台风中心距离对受灾人口、死亡人口、受灾农作物和直接经济损失的贡献最大。本研究可为台风灾害风险的影响因素定量化分析提供方法参考。
Typhoon disasters have caused numerous casualties and property loss in Zhejiang Province,China. This study analyzed the historic typhoon disasters data covering 2009-2020,combining with the data of wind field,precipitation,topography,river and statistical measures in Zhejiang Province to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of typhoon disasters. The influencing factors of typhoon intensity were revealed by Geodetector technique. The results showed that there were 27 typhoon landfalling or affecting Zhejiang Province during this period,in particular,12 super typhoons occurring in the southeast coastal areas that posed the most severe threat to human lives and properties. The maximum wind velocity,the maximum three-day precipitation and the distance to typhoon center were considered as the three major factors,which determined the affected population,the death number,the damaged crops,and the direct economic loss. The results can provide theoretical reference for quantitatively analyzing the influencing factors of typhoon disasters and their associated risks.
作者
韩鹏
郭桂祯
李鑫磊
刘菁菁
HAN Peng;GUO Guizhen;LI Xinlei;LIU Jingjing(National Disaster Reduction Center of China,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期97-106,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502901)。
关键词
台风灾害
时空分布
影响因素
地理探测器
浙江省
typhoon disaster
spatiotemporal pattern
influencing factor
Geodetector
Zhejiang Province
作者简介
韩鹏(1985-),男,助理研究员,博士,主要从事自然灾害风险管理与监测预警研究.E⁃mail:hanpeng@ndrcc.org.cn。
