摘要
根据甘肃省境内35个气象台站1965—2015年的逐日降水观测数据,通过统计春、夏、秋、冬及全年的累计降水量,计算出四季及全年的标准化降水指数(SPI)值,并采用EOF分析方法对其进行时空分解,研究SPI值的空间分布特征和时间变化规律,从而分析甘肃省50年来干旱的时空分布特征。结果表明:整个区域范围内特征向量均为正值,表明1965—2015年甘肃省旱涝变化整体同步,即一致性变涝或变旱;从时间系数演变来看,四季分布不均匀,极值相差较大,1965—2015年春、秋、冬季气候向湿润转变,夏季有向干旱发展的趋势,干旱多发生在甘肃省的西北、东南地区,且夏季干旱范围最大;1965—2015年甘肃省全年旱涝情况呈现由干旱到湿润的气候变化特征。
Based on the daily precipitation observation data of 35 meteorological stations in Gansu Province from1965 to 2015, the standardized precipitation index(SPI) values of the four seasons and the whole year were calculated by counting the cumulative precipitation in spring, summer, autumn, winter and the whole year, and the EOF analysis method was used to conduct temporal and spatial decomposition of the SPI value. The spatial distribution characteristics and temporal variation of the SPI value were studied, and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of drought in Gansu Province in the past 50 years were analyzed. The results showed that, all the feature vectors in the entire region were positive, and it appeared that the drought and flood change in Gansu Province from 1965 to 2015 was overall synchronized,it was a consistent change to floods or droughts. From the perspective of the evolution of time coefficient, the distribution of four seasons was uneven, and the extreme values were quite different. During 1965-2015, the climate in spring, autumn and winter changed to humid, and there was a trend of drought in summer. Droughts mostly occurred in the northwestern and southeastern region of Gansu Province, and the largest range of drought was in summer. From 1965 to 2015, the annual drought and flood status in Gansu Province showed the characteristics of climate change from drought to humid.
作者
栾振斌
宁和平
姚瑞
贺海燕
徐璐
张亚敏
郭俊彬
张榆锋
LUAN Zhenbin;NING Heping;YAO Rui;HE Haiyan;XU Lu;ZHANG Yamin;GUO Junbin;ZHANG Yufeng(Dingxi Meteorological Bureau,Dingxi Gansu 743000;Longnan Meteorological Bureau,Longnan Gansu 746000;Zhuoni Meteorological Bureau,Zhuoni Gansu 747600;Xincheng District Meteorological Bureau of Hohhot City,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010010;Huajialing Meteorological Station of Tongwei County,Tongwei Gansu 743000)
出处
《现代农业科技》
2022年第13期124-129,共6页
Modern Agricultural Science and Technology
作者简介
栾振斌(1994—),男,甘肃陇西人,硕士。研究方向:气象防灾减灾;通信作者:姚瑞。
