摘要
2021年全球液化天然气(LNG)市场呈现五大特点。一是全球天然气资源丰富,勘探开发潜力巨大,非常规天然气发展前景广阔;二是LNG贸易量价齐升,全年贸易量、亚太与欧洲市场LNG价格均创历史新高;三是现货与再出口贸易持续增加,市场流动性与灵活性不断提升;四是再汽化能力增幅创新高,LNG项目投资决策提速;五是碳中和LNG贸易船次倍增,引起行业内广泛关注。受碳达峰碳中和政策影响,未来天然气重要性更加凸显;全球LNG产能快速增长,需求增速不确定性较大;2025年前后市场供应或将宽松,LNG短期价格或将回落,长期价格将取决于新项目全周期成本。在碳达峰碳中和背景下,中国天然气需求将进一步扩大,应统筹做好“国产气与进口气、管道气与LNG、多气源之间、长期合同与现货”四个平衡,加速LNG海外资源池构建,逐步完善LNG产业链,提升一体化盈利能力,确保天然气安全供应。
In 2021, the global liquefied natural gas(LNG) market showed five characteristics. First, the global natural gas resource was abundant with great potential for development and unconventional natural gas had broad prospects. Second,both volume and price surged and the annual LNG trade volume as well as LNG benchmarks in major markets hit record levels. Thirdly, the volume of spot and re-export trade increased and liquidity and flexibility of the market improved. Fourthly,regasification capacity reached a record high and investment decisions related to LNG projects have been accelerated. Fifthly, the number of carbon neutrality LNG cargoes multiplied which attracted widespread attention in the industry. Afected by the carbon neutrality and carbon peaking goal, the importance of natural gas will become more prominent in the future and the global LNG production capacity is growing rapidly while the growth rate of demand is uncertain. The market supply may become loosen around 2025, the short-term LNG price may fall, and the long-term price will depend on new projects full cycle cost. Under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, China’s natural gas demand will further expand. It is suggested China should further coordinate such “four balances” as the balances of domestic gas and imported gas, pipeline gas and LNG, multiple gas sources, and long-term contract and spot trade. It should accelerate to build overseas LNG portfolio, gradually better the LNG industry chain, enhance the integrated profitability, and ensure secure supplies of natural gas.
作者
黄浩凯
HUANG Haokai(PetroChina International Co.,Ltd.)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2022年第4期79-91,共13页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
液化天然气
供需
贸易
价格
能源转型
LNG
supply and demand
trade
price
energy transformation
