摘要
2020年以来,东北亚地区LNG现货市场经历了前所未有的大落和大起。随着全球LNG液化供应能力继续增加,上半年全球LNG产能过剩非常严重,美国LNG出口订单被大量取消,LNG现货价格表现持续低迷。进入冬季以后,随着需求上升,特别是受冬季寒流等因素影响导致东亚地区需求显著增长,叠加全球多个LNG项目生产线持续故障等,改变了东北亚地区市场的供需平衡,加之贸易商的炒作,普氏JKM LNG现货价格一路飞涨。大西洋地区与亚太地区之间的套利空间还导致LNG运力一时严重不足,伴随着巴拿马运河堵塞情况发生,东北亚地区现货价格和LNG运输船的租金价格呈现"双螺旋上升"态势。面对全球新增LNG产能表现出的新特点,以及东北亚地区目前还不成熟的现货和期货市场,中国应继续深入推进天然气市场化改革,建立中国LNG采购和贸易平台,实现对东北亚地区LNG价格形成机制的重要补充和完善。
Affected by the continuous supply interruption of global LNG projects and the winter cold wave in East Asia,the spot market in Northeast Asia experienced an unprecedented big fall and rise from January 2020 to January 2021.As global LNG liquefication capacity continues to increase,global LNG overcapacity is evident ahead of the northern hemisphere winter,with a large number of U.S.LNG export cargo cancellations.In the winter,with the demand rising,the continuous failure of trains in major LNG projects changed the supply and demand balance in the Northeast Asian market.Meanwhile,the Platts JKM price soared under the speculation of a few traders.The arbitrage space between the Atlantic Basin and the Asia-Pacific Basin led to a serious shortage of LNG transport capacity.With the congestion of the Panama Canal,the spot price in Northeast Asia,and the charter rate of LNG carriers showed a "double spiral" trend.In the face of the new features of newly increased global LNG production capacity and the immature spot and futures markets in Northeast Asia,China should continue to promote the market-oriented reform of natural gas,establish China LNG procurement and trade platform,and realize the important supplement and improvement of the formation mechanism of LNG price in Northeast Asia.
作者
王寰宇
林炫亮
WANG Huanyu;Leonard Lim(Beijing Gas Group Co.,Ltd.)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2021年第2期82-91,共10页
International Petroleum Economics
