摘要
为了把握我国体育、娱乐用品的消费现状,预测未来我国体育、娱乐用品增长趋势。本文根据2012年3月至2020年12月我国体育、娱乐用品零售额,建立SARIMA模型进行预测。结果表明:预测值与观测值较为接近,建立的SARIMA模型(即ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)12)能够较为准确地预测零售额。同时针对季节性增长趋势,文末提出相关建议以期稳定体育、娱乐用品销售趋势。
The objective is to research on the current consumption situation of sports and entertainment products in China and predict the growth trend of sports and entertainment products in China in the future.Based on the retail sales of sports and entertainment products in China from March 2012 to December 2019,this paper establishes SARIMA model for prediction.The results show that the predicted value is close to the observed value,and the established SARIMA model(ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,0)12)can predict more accurately.At the same time,according to the seasonal growth trend,the paper puts forward relevant suggestions in order to stabilize the sales trend of sports and entertainment products.
作者
马超逸
Ma Chaoyi(School of physical education,Shanghai University Shanghai 200444,China)
出处
《体育科技文献通报》
2022年第5期211-213,共3页
Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology
作者简介
马超逸(1998-),男,江苏人,在读硕士研究生,研究方向:体育产业。
