摘要
“惩罚性威慑”和“拒止性威慑”是威慑理论和战略确认的两种基本的威慑形式。冷战时期,美国的威慑战略主要是核威慑,并且主要以“惩罚性威慑”为主。冷战后,美国威慑战略大致经历了三次大的变化:一是从“千篇一律”的威慑向“量身定制”的威慑的转变;二是从核威慑为主到强调常规威慑的转变;三是近年来在大国竞争战略指导下,美国威慑战略进一步从“惩罚性威慑”向“拒止性威慑”的转变。促使美国做出这一转变的根本原因是,美军在大国竞争战略指导下,针对美国主要对手军事实力大增,为保持威慑可信性而采取的一种现实选择。美国“拒止性威慑”战略的主要对象是中俄等竞争性对手,其目标是拒止中俄采取所谓的“既成事实”的“侵略”行动,对朝鲜和伊朗等国仍以“惩罚性威慑”为主。美军从“惩罚性威慑”向“拒止性威慑”的转变将对其军力结构和全球军力布建的态势、作战概念等产生重大的影响。但美实施“拒止性威慑”存在理论上和现实上的困境。美国威慑战略从“惩罚性威慑”向“拒止性威慑”的转变并不意味着放弃“惩罚性威慑”。
Deterrence by punishment and deterrence by denial are two basic forms recognized by deterrence theory and strategy.During the Cold War,the U.S.deterrence strategy was primarily based on nuclear deterrence and deterrence by punishment.After the Cold War,U.S.deterrence strategy has been undergoing three big changes:from a"one-size-for all"deterrence toward"tailored"deterrence;from nuclear deterrence to prioritizing conventional military deterrence;and in recent years,from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial under the guidance of major power strategy.The fundamental reason for the shift from punishment to denial is to remain a credible deterrence as a practical option to counter primary adversaries’growing military capabilities.The main targets of U.S.deterrence by denial strategy are such potential adversaries as China and Russia,and its designated goal is to deter China and Russia from pursuing a fait accompli strategy,while adhering to deterrence by punishment for North Korea and Iran.The change from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial will have significant impacts on the U.S military’s force structure,global force posture and operational concepts.However,there are theoretical and practical predicaments for the U.S.military to implement deterrence by denial strategy.The transformation of U.S.deterrence strategy from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial does not mean that it will give up deterrence by punishment.
出处
《美国研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期102-132,7,8,共33页
The Chinese Journal of American Studies
作者简介
张业亮,清华大学中美关系研究中心高级研究员。
