摘要
中美在南海的竞争日益加剧,但一些重要问题尚未得到澄清。中国和美国究竟为何而斗?是什么导致中美自2009年以来在南海问题上的摩擦与争论?本文综合分析第三方因素、海洋规则分歧和权力竞争这三大变量在中美南海竞争中的权重和影响机制,探究不同因素间的关系和中美在南海长期竞争的基本趋势。研究表明,当前的中美南海僵局是两国围绕三大因素长期互动的结果,在不同时期三大因素的影响力排序不同。第三方因素、海洋规则分歧和权力竞争分别是2009—2012年、2013—2016年、2017—2020年这三个时段最有力的解释变量。在可预见的未来,权力竞争仍将是最有影响力的因素,其他因素的重要性会相对下降。
The increasing competition between China and the United States in the South China Sea necessitates that some important issues be resolved.What are China and the US fighting over?What is causing the positions of the two sides to increasingly diverge on this issue since 2009 This article attempts to examine three major factors—third parties,disputes over maritime rules,and power competition—to clarify the main mechanisms that have worked in China-US competition in the South China Sea since 2009,to assess the relationship among the factors,and to explore basic trends of the competition in the long-term.The main findings are that third-party factors,disputes over maritime rules,and power competition has the most explanatory power respectively in 2009–2012,2013–2016,and 2017-2020,and that the current China–US stalemate in the South China Sea is the result of long-term bilateral interaction in these three dimensions.Generally speaking,power competition will continue to be the most influential factor and play an increasingly important role in the foreseeable future,while the roles of other factors will decline in relative importance.
出处
《外交评论（外交学院学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期24-46,5,共24页
Foreign Affairs Review
关键词
南海
中美关系
权力竞争
海洋秩序
第三方因素
South China Sea
power competition
China–US relations
maritime order
third party
作者简介
胡波,北京大学海洋战略研究中心主任(北京100871)。
