摘要
[研究目的]研究风险作用下网络舆情演化规律,为防范化解舆情风险提供理论依据。[研究方法]分析风险作用下网络舆情演化过程,以logistic模型为基础模型,构建自治线性风险作用下网络舆情演化模型,通过仿真探索自治线性风险作用下网络舆情演化特征,明晰自治线性风险对于网络舆情的强化和弱化机理,及其在不同演化阶段的影响差异性。[研究结论]通过模型仿真和实证分析得出:自治线性风险作用下,网络舆情演化本质是两条S型曲线的拼接,结合点即风险作用点;自治线性风险改变舆情演化关键时间节点及其对应舆情信息量,风险作用时间点起始于舆情演化的不同阶段,对舆情演化产生不同影响。
[Research purpose]The study of the action of risk factors on the evolution of public opinion is helpful to enrich the scientific exploration of the evolution mechanism of public opinion,and provide theoretical support for solving the real public opinion problems.[Research method]This paper analyzes the evolution process of network public opinion under the action of risk,and builds the evolution model of network public opinion under the action of autonomous linear risk based on logistic model.Through simulation,it explores the evolution characteristics of network public opinion under the action of autonomous linear risk,and clarifies the mechanism of strengthening and weakening of network public opinion under the action of autonomous linear risk,as well as the different influences in different evolution stages.[Research conclusion]Under the action of autonomous linear risk,the essence of network public opinion evolution is the splicing of two S-shaped curves,and the joint point is the risk action point;Autonomous linear risk changes the key time nodes of public opinion evolution and the corresponding amount of public opinion information.The time nodes of risk action start from different stages of public opinion evolution and have different effects on the evolution of public opinion.
作者
夏一雪
张立红
何巍
张双狮
Xia Yixue;Zhang Lihong;He Wei;Zhang Shuangshi(Research Center for Network Public Opinion Governance of China,People's Police University,Langfang 065000)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期92-98,共7页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目“‘一带一路’沿线国家涉华舆情态势感知体系与应对研究”(编号:20YJA860002)
国家民委民族研究项目“新媒体时代涉民族因素网络舆情风险建模与治理研究”(编号:2020-GMD-023)
全国统计科学研究重点项目“基于舆情大数据的社会稳定风险建模与预警研究”(编号:2019LZ07)
河北省社会科学发展研究课题“重大突发事件网络舆论新生风险治理机制研究”(编号:20200403102)。
关键词
网络舆情
自治线性风险
舆情演化
风险作用
舆情风险
network public opinion
autonomous linear risk
evolution of public opinion
action of risk
risk of public opinion
作者简介
夏一雪,女,1983年生,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:网络舆情;张立红,女,1976年生,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向:社会物理学;何巍,女,1986年生,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向:大数据可视化;张双狮,男,1975年生,博士后,讲师,研究方向:大数据技术。
