摘要
珠江流域是岭南地区最大的流域,西江流域为珠江的主要支流.西江流域未来时期年最大降雨与年均降雨的变化会影响未来时期的极端洪水与水资源短缺情况,但是相关研究较少.该研究基于国际多模型比较计划ISIMIP2b数据,对西江流域未来时期年最大降雨与年均降雨进行研究.研究发现,年最大与年均降雨在RCP 8.5与RCP 4.5场景下均有增加的趋势,但趋势的空间分布受气候模型的影响.在RCP 8.5场景下,年最大降雨的增加趋势显著,而在RCP 4.5场景下,增加趋势不显著;在RCP 8.5场景下,年均降雨的增加趋势不显著,而在RCP 4.5场景下,增加趋势显著.
The Pearl River Basin is the largest basin in South China,and the Xijiang River is the largest tributary of the Pearl River.The changes of annual maximum precipitation and mean precipitation in the Xijiang River would have influence on hydrological extremes and water scarcity.However,the study on future annual maximum precipitation and mean precipitation in the Xijiang River remains limited.The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project data were used to study annual maximum precipitation and mean precipitation changes in the Xijiang River.It's found that the annual maximum precipitation and mean precipitation would increase in the future under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios.The spatial distribution of the changes varies with climate models.The increasing trend of annual maximum precipitation is significant under the RCP 8.5 scenario,while not significant under the RCP 4.5 scenario.The increasing trend of annual mean precipitation is not significant under the RCP 8.5 scenario,while significant under the RCP 4.5 scenario.
作者
许旺
唐力
曾清怀
梁鸿
李会亚
XU Wang;TANG Li;ZENG Qinghuai;LIANG Hong;LI Huiya(Environment monitoring institute of Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518049, Guangdong, China;Ecology monitoring institute of Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518000, Guangdong, China)
出处
《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期342-346,共5页
Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences
基金
深圳市国家级野外科学观测研究平台项目(8389750).
关键词
降雨
气候变化
水资源
西江流域
precipitation
climate change
water resources
Xijiang River
作者简介
通信联系人:曾清怀,E-mail:qinghuaizeng@163.com.
