摘要
文章通过构建包括货币供应、汇率、贸易变量在内的理论模型,利用TVP-VAR模型以我国2000年1月至2019年6月的统计数据实证检验了货币供应、汇率变动对我国总体贸易和分产品贸易的时变影响。同时,引入贸易政策不确定性指数,进一步分析了贸易环境对变量间作用效果的影响。研究发现:当人民币贬值时,我国总体贸易收支的变化轨迹呈"倒J曲线"而非传统的"J型曲线",货币供应增速变动对总体贸易仅存在短期影响,不具有持续性;而货币增速、汇率对不同类产品贸易收支具有差异性影响;同时,随着贸易政策不确性的加剧,货币增速、汇率变动对贸易收支的作用效果逐渐减弱。
By constructing theoretical models including money supply,exchange rate and trade variables,this paper empirically tests the time-varying influence of money supply and exchange rate changes on China’s overall trade and classified-product trade with the statistical data from January 2000 to June 2019 by employing TVP-VAR model,and meanwhile,brings in the uncertainty index of trade policy to further analyze the influence of trade environment on the effects of variables.The study results are as below:When RMB depreciates,the change trajectory of China’s overall trade balance shows an inverted J-curve instead of a conventional J-curve,and the change of money supply growth rate only has a short-term impact on the overall trade.The impact of currency growth rate and exchange rate on trade balance of classified-products is heterogeneous.In addition,with the increase of trade policy uncertainty,the effect of money supply growth rate and exchange rate fluctuations on trade balance is correspondingly weakened.
作者
赵乐新
彭刚
Zhao Lexin;Peng Gang(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310007,China;School of Statistics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期136-140,共5页
Statistics & Decision
作者简介
赵乐新(1996-),男,广西崇左人,博士研究生,研究方向:宏观经济;彭刚(1988-),男,江西新余人,博士,副教授,研究方向:宏观经济统计与核算。
