摘要
基于PSR模型构建甘肃省土地生态安全评价指标体系,综合运用熵权法、综合评价法、综合指数法和灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对该区域土地生态安全状况和安全等级进行评价研究,并对其未来5a土地生态安全状况进行预测.研究发现:2008年~2017年,甘肃省土地生态安全综合指数呈上升趋势,略有小幅波动,从0.2647增加到0.7732,安全等级由较不安全状态转变为较安全状态,土地生态安全整体状况得到改善和提升.通过运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测甘肃省未来5a的土地生态安全状况,预测结果为甘肃省2018年~2022年土地生态安全呈上升趋势,土地生态安全等级将达到安全状态.因此,在研究期内,甘肃省土地生态安全变化明显,总体呈上升趋势,土地生态安全状况明显改善,发展势头良好.
Based on the PSR model,we construct a land ecological security evaluation index system in Gansu Province,and comprehensively use the entropy weight method,comprehensive evaluation method,comprehensive index method,and gray prediction GM( 1,1) model to evaluate the ecological security status and security level of the region. And forecast its land ecological security situation in the next 5 a. The study found that from2008 to 2017,the comprehensive index of land ecological security in Gansu Province showed an upward trend,with a slight fluctuation,increasing from 0. 264 7 to 0. 773 2,the security level changed from a less secure state to a more secure state,and the overall status of land ecological security was improved and promotion. By using the grey prediction GM( 1,1) model to predict the ecological security status of land in Gansu Province in the next 5 years,the forecast result is that the ecological security of land in Gansu Province will increase in 2018-2022,and the ecological security level of land will reach a safe state. Therefore,during the study period,the ecological security of land in Gansu Province changed significantly,showing an overall upward trend,the status of ecological security of land has improved significantly,and the development momentum is good.
作者
李青松
何如海
周颖
陆雅雯
LI Qing-song;HE Ru-hai;ZHOU Ying;LU Ya-wen(School of Economy and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,Anhui,China)
出处
《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第4期122-128,共7页
Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然基金项目(71873003).
作者简介
李青松(1995-),男,安徽和县人,安徽农业大学经济管理学院硕士研究生,主要从事土地资源管理方面的研究;通讯作者:何如海(1969-),男,安徽潜山人,安徽农业大学经济管理学院副研究员,博士,硕士生导师,主要从事区域经济与土地资源可持续利用方面的研究.
