摘要
中国经济正处于由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展的阶段,促进制造业结构升级是经济高质量发展的关键环节。本文通过构建两部门世代交叠模型进行理论推导,并利用2002-2016年中国30个省份面板数据,对人口老龄化、技术创新与制造业结构升级的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明,人口老龄化和技术创新均会促进制造业结构升级,人力资本、消费需求和城镇化对制造业结构升级亦存在显著正向影响。将人口老龄化作为门槛变量时,技术创新对制造业结构升级的影响具有双重门槛特征,整体呈现先上升后下降的正向影响趋势。因此,应积极推进城镇化、社会养老保障制度改革、税收改革、劳动制度改革,增加技术创新投入,实现制造业结构升级与空间均衡发展。
China’s economy is changing from high-speed growth stage to high-quality development stage.Promoting the upgrading of manufacturing structure is the key to high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2002 to 2016,this paper constructs an overlapping generation model of two sectors,and makes an empirical study on the relationship between population aging,technological innovation and the upgrading of manufacturing structure.The results show that the population aging and technological innovation will promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure,and human capital,consumption demand and urbanization also have a significant positive impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure.When the population aging is taken as a threshold variable,the impact of technological innovation on the upgrading of manufacturing structure has a double threshold feature,which shows a positive trend of first rising and then falling.Therefore,we should actively promote urbanization,social security system reform,tax reform,labor system reform and increase investment in technological innovation,so as to achieve the structural upgrading and spatial balanced development of manufacturing industry.
作者
刘建国
吴继煜
Liu Jianguo;Wu Jiyu(Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730101;Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《河南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期60-66,共7页
Journal of Henan Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(20BRK003)。
关键词
人口老龄化
技术创新
制造业结构升级
动态面板模型
门槛效应模型
population aging
technological innovation
manufacturing structure upgrade
dynamic panel model
threshold effect model
作者简介
刘建国(1976—),男,甘肃宁县人,中国科学院研究生院理学博士,兰州财经大学经济学院副教授,主要从事人口与经济等相关研究;通讯作者:吴继煜,男,江苏苏州人,兰州大学《西北人口》编辑部主任,甘肃省人口学会理事,主要从事人口老龄化与社会保障等相关研究。
