摘要
利用天津市1961—2018年分钟级降水数据,统计了天津地区短时暴雨过程,结合模糊识别法对暴雨过程进行分类,分析了暴雨雨型的时空分布特征,基于天津城市暴雨内涝数值模型,评估了不同雨型对内涝积水总量的影响。结果表明:近58 a天津地区短时暴雨雨型以单峰型(Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型和Ⅲ型)为主,其中各年代60 min暴雨雨型以Ⅰ型、Ⅲ型为主,120 min和180 min暴雨雨型以Ⅰ型为主导。短时暴雨集中出现在7月和8月,暴雨过程均以单峰型为主,60 min暴雨雨型7月以Ⅰ型居多,8月Ⅲ型最多,120 min和180 min暴雨雨型均为Ⅰ型最多。各区短时暴雨雨型均以单峰型居多,双峰型次之,均匀型较少。从各地区主导雨型来看,60 min和180 min暴雨雨型不一,包含Ⅰ型、Ⅲ型和Ⅴ型;120 min暴雨雨型各区一致为Ⅰ型。天津市短时暴雨雨型存在明显的时空分异,且不同雨型影响内涝积水总量的峰值出现时间,其中Ⅰ型的积水总量峰值出现时间早,是城市排水设计重点关注的雨型。工程设计中应充分考虑气候变化和城市化对暴雨过程的影响。
Using the minute-level precipitation data from 1961 to 2018,the short-term rainstorm process in Tianjin was counted,and the rainstorm process was classified with the fuzzy recognition method.The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the rainstorm type were analyzed.Based on the urban rainstorm internal waterlogging numerical model of Tianjin,the impacts of different rain patterns on the total amount of waterlogged were assessed.The results showed that in the past 58 years,the short-term rainstorm in the Tianjin area is dominated by unimodal type(type Ⅰ,type Ⅱ,and type Ⅲ),and the 60-minute rainstorm in each period is dominated by type Ⅰand type Ⅲ.The 120-minute and 180-minute rainstorms are dominated by Type Ⅰ.Short-term rainstorms occur concentratedly in July and August,and the rainstorm process is dominated by unimodal type.The 60-minute rainstorm type is almost type Ⅰ in July,and type Ⅲ is the most in August.Both the 120-min and 180-min rainstorm types are mainly Type Ⅰ.The short-term rainstorm patterns in each area are mostly unimodal type following the bimodal type and less the uniform type.From the perspective of dominant rainfall patterns in various regions,the 60-minute and180-minute rainstorms are different including type Ⅰ,type Ⅲ,and type Ⅴ.The 120-minute rainstorm type is consistent with type Ⅰ in all areas.There is obvious spatiotemporal differentiation in short-term rainstorm patterns in Tianjin,and different rain patterns affect the peak occurrence time of the total amount of waterlogging.Among them,the peak time of the total amount of waterlogging of type Ⅰ appears early,which is the rain type that the urban drainage design focuses on.In summary,the impact of climate change and urbanization on the process of heavy rain should be fully considered in the engineering design.
作者
曹经福
杨艳娟
郭军
陈靖
CAO Jing-fu;YANG Yan-juan;GUO Jun;CHEN Jing(Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic Meteorology,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Climate Center,Tianjin 300074,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2021年第4期114-121,共8页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0606302)
天津市气象局科研项目(202015ybxm06)共同资助。
关键词
短时暴雨雨型
时空分异
内涝积水
单峰型
模糊识别法
Short-duration rainstorm pattern
Spatiotemporal differentiation
Waterlogging
Unimodal type
Fuzzy identification method
作者简介
曹经福,女,1986年生,工程师,主要从事气候分析与应用研究,E-mail:cjf_with_ljw@163.com。
