摘要
加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是新形势下促进我国稳健嵌入全球经济体系的重大战略部署。推进以国内大循环为主体的“双循环”新发展格局,关键是要通过金融业与实体产业的融合,促进产业结构优化升级,形成具有核心竞争力的现代产业体系,以产业高质量发展带动国内与国际经济的循环互动。为分析金融业与实体产业融合对“双循环”新发展格局的影响,选取经济总量占据我国半壁江山的长三角、京津冀、珠三角经济圈为样本,运用产业结构耦合分析工具,将企业高技术研发支出比率、科技产业就业人数、外商投资比重、人均消费品零售总额等变量作为结构性指标,构建2009-2018年我国三大经济圈金融业与实体产业耦合度面板模型。结果表明:科技产业就业人数和人均消费品零售总额增长在金融业和实体产业融合中体现了较显著的正向作用,有利于形成以国内大循环为主体的“双循环”新发展格局;企业高技术研发支出比率、外商投资比重对金融业和实体产业耦合度没有体现正向作用,一定程度上制约了“双循环”新发展格局的推进。为此,聚焦技术、市场与制度等关键要素,提出知识(技术)要素向实体产业和金融业集聚、优化产业融合的市场环境、实施差异化和一体化相结合的金融业与实体产业融合路径等对策建议。
To build a new development pattern with domestic big circulation as the main body and domestic and international double circulation promoting each other is a major strategic deployment to promote China's steady integration into the global economic system under the new situation.One of the core paths of economic dual cycle development is to form a modern industrial system with core competitiveness on the basis of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure through the integration of Finance and real industry,so as to drive the interactive cycle of domestic economy and external economy with high-quality industrial development.This paper selects the Yangtze River Delta,Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Pearl River Delta economic circle,which account for half of China's total economic volume,as the empirical analysis samples,and uses the industrial structure coupling analysis tool to analyze the structural variables such as high-tech R&D expenditure ratio of enterprises,employment number of science and technology industry,foreign investment proportion and per capita total retail sales of consumer goods,which affect China's economic dual cycle——The panel model of coupling degree between financial industry and real industry in China's three economic circles in 2018.The empirical results show that:The number of employment in science and technology industry and the growth of per capita total retail sales of consumer goods show a significant role in promoting the coupling of financial industry and real industry,which is conducive to the development of“internal circulation”economy;The proportion of high-tech R&D expenditure and foreign investment does not show a positive effect on the coupling degree of finance and industry,which restricts the development of“internal circulation”economy to a certain extent“external circulation”development quality.Based on this,the study proposes to focus on key elements such as technology,market and system,promote the integration and development of financial industry and real industry in the three economic circles by stimulating domestic demand and ensuring the supply of various elements,and enhance the docking and joint effect between regional industry and China's macro economy,so as to realize the benign interaction of China's economic development from internal circulation to“double circulation”of internal and external economy some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the change of dynamic pattern.
作者
郭澄澄
张春
GUO Cheng-cheng;ZHANG Chun
出处
《产经评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期56-68,共13页
Industrial Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘双循环’背景下中国经济安全风险预警与防控机制研究”(项目编号:21ZDA115,项目负责人:董小君)。
关键词
双循环
金融业
实体产业
产业融合
产业耦合度
double circulation
financial industry
real industry
industrial integration
industrial coupling degree
作者简介
郭澄澄,经济学博士,上海市发展改革研究院、上海交通大学高级金融学院博士后,研究方向:产业经济学、区域经济学、科技金融、金融科技;张春,上海交通大学高级金融学院金融学教授、博士生导师,研究方向:金融改革与发展。
