摘要
旱灾脆弱性诊断是实现有针对性地调控区域旱灾风险的基础,在区域旱灾风险管理中有重要作用。为诊断识别区域旱灾脆弱性的主要影响指标,以基于联系数和灰色关联的方法计算得到的旱灾脆弱性评价结果为基础,构建了山东省旱灾脆弱性辨证因子诊断模型,形成了基于联系数的旱灾脆弱性诊断辨证因子方法。该方法中将有关旱灾脆弱性的评价结果和指标称为因子,以评价等级和评价指标构建因子联系数的辨证值,通过辨证值诊断识别得到旱灾脆弱性的辨证因子。将该模型应用于山东省旱灾脆弱性诊断研究中,通过诊断模型识别影响山东省1999—2005年旱灾脆弱性的主要辨证因子为森林覆盖率、城市水协调能力和污水达标排放率,其中森林覆盖率对山东省旱灾脆弱性的影响性最大。诊断结果可为当地旱灾风险管理提供科学支持。
The research on drought vulnerability diagnosis is the basis of targeted regional drought risk regulation and plays an important role in regional drought risk management.In order to diagnose and identify the main indicators affecting regional drought vulnerability,based on the evaluation results of drought vulnerabilty caculated by connection number and grey correlation method,a syndrome differentiation factor model for drought vulnerability diagnosis in Shandong province is constructed,and a syndrome differentiation factor method based on correlation number was formed.In this paper,the evaluation results and indicators related to drought vulnerability are called factors,and the dialectical value of the connection number of factors is constructed by the evaluation grade and evaluation index,and the dialectical factor of drought vulnerability is obtained through the diagnosis and identification of the dialectical value.The model was applied to the study of drought vulnerability diagnosis in Shandong Province,and the main factors influencing drought vulnerability in Shandong province from 1999 to 2005 were identified by the diagnosis model as forest coverage rate,urban water coordination ability and discharge rate of sewage reaching the standard,among which forest coverage rate had the greatest influence on drought vulnerability in Shandong Province.The diagnosis results can provide scientific support for local drought risk management.
作者
金菊良
龚高
陈梦璐
郭放
周玉良
宁少尉
JIN Juliang;GONG Gao;CHEN Menglu;GUO Fang;ZHOU Yuliang;NING Shaowei(School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期1-5,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502405)
山东省重点研发计划项目(2017GSF20101)
国家自然科学基金项目(51709071,51579060)。
关键词
旱灾风险
旱灾脆弱性
诊断
辨证因子
联系数
山东省
drought risk
drought vulnerability
diagnosis
syndrome different factor
connection number
Shangdong Province
作者简介
第一作者:金菊良(1966-),男,汉族,江苏吴江人,博士,教授,主要从事水资源系统工程研究,E-mail:JINJL66@126.com;通讯作者:陈梦璐(1990-),女,汉族,安徽安庆人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究,E-mail:516792688@qq.com。
