摘要
农业干旱风险分析是近年来兴起的一个新的研究领域,这一研究不仅是农业旱灾风险管理的基础和前提,也是农业干旱风险区划和灾前损失预评估的理论基础。本文系统阐述了农业旱灾风险的内涵及构成要素、风险分析体系及研究现状,在此基础上指出,依据自然灾害风险分析基本原理,从农业旱灾危害性以及承灾体脆弱性角度系统地建立农业旱灾综合风险分析程序框架和指标体系,尤其是开发针对每一风险要素的、动态的数学模型和指标体系是当前干旱灾害风险时空格局研究的当务之急。
The analysis of agricultural drought risk is not only the prerequisite of drought risk management,but also the theoretical basis of risk division and of the damages,and it has become a new research focus in recent years.The connotation,the constituent elements,the analysis sys-tem,and the study status of agricultural drought disaster were described in this paper.On this ba-sis,this paper pointed out that,from the agricultural drought hazard and vulnerability point of view,the systematic establishment of a comprehensive drought risk analysis framework,especially the development of dynamic mathematical models and index system for each risk factor,is the re-search priority in the study of temporal and spatial patterns of agricultural drought risk.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期557-564,共8页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40601091
40801216)
国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B02
2006BAC18B06)
关键词
农业干旱
风险
危险性
脆弱性
agricultural drought
risk
hazard
vulnerability
作者简介
何斌（1986-），男，博士研究生，主要从事旱灾风险研究。E-mail：heb．07b@igsnrr．ac．cn通讯作者：武建军，男，副教授。主要从事研究方向。E-mail：wujj@ires．cn
