国际粮食贸易网络多核集聚格局的形成机制研究被引量：15

Research on the Formation Mechanism of Clustered Structure with Multi-Hubs of the International Cereal Trade Network

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摘要受全球新冠肺炎疫情影响,国际粮食贸易网络格局的动态变化成为当前全球关注的热点。通过构建1995-2018年全球125个主要经济体的国际粮食贸易网络,探索贸易格局演化特征和形成机制。研究发现:国际粮食贸易网络的网络密度、贸易规模和集聚程度增加,表现出越来越“小”的小世界特性;网络格局以美国独大、离散少核的不均衡格局演化为以俄罗斯、美国、泰国等重要的粮食出口国为多个中心的集聚多核的均衡格局。基于时间指数随机图模型的实证结果得出,自组织机制中的扩张性、三元组闭合性、稳定性和关系嵌入机制中的互补性关系均促进了粮食贸易关系的形成,没有证据显示竞争性关系对粮食贸易关系有抑制作用,在一定程度上肯定了国际粮食贸易的正和博弈本质。 Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,the structural changes of international cereal trade network are being concerned globally.By constructing the international food trade network of 125 major economies in the world from 1995 to 2018,this paper explores the evolution characteristics and formation mechanism of trade pattern.This study reveals:the network density,trade volume and agglomeration degree of the international cereal trade network are increasing,showing an increasingly“smaller”small-world;the network has been evolved from an unbalanced and discrete structure with fewer hubs dominated by the United States to a balanced and clustered structure with multi-hubs distributed in the important cereal exporters,such as Russia,the United States,Thailand,etc.The empirical results based on temporal exponential random graph model show that the expansibility,triadic closure,stability in self-organization mechanism and the complementary relationship in relational embeddedness mechanism promote the formation of cereal trade relation.Furthermore,there is no evidence to support that competitive relationship can restrain cereal trade relation,which affirms the positive-sum game nature of international cereal trade to a certain extent.The systematic analysis of the causal mechanism of international cereal trade network structure from macro to micro levels provides policy guidance to enhance China’s position as a hub in the network and ensure the stable development of global cereal trading system.

作者刘林青闫小斐 LIU Linqing;YAN Xiaofei

机构地区武汉大学经济与管理学院武汉大学中国企业家研究中心

出处《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第4期47-59,179,180,共15页 Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基金国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球生产网络、知识产权保护与中国外贸竞争力提升研究”(15ZDB155) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“新形势下全球创新网络演化及风险治理研究”(20&ZD072)。

关键词国际粮食贸易网络多核集聚格局形成机制时间指数随机图模型 international cereal trade network clustered structure with multi-hubs formation mechanism temporal exponential random graph model

分类号 F742 [经济管理—国际贸易]

作者简介通讯作者:闫小斐。