摘要
目的分析江西省COVID-19疫情的流行病学特征、时空演化及影响因素。方法采用文本分析法提取流行病学信息,使用ArcGIS 10.3软件绘制疫情演化图谱、空间分析方法探讨疫情时空分布特征、偏最小二乘法(partial least square,PLS)分析疫情分布的影响因素。结果江西累计确诊930例,中青年(31~55岁)最多,占总数的60.40%,主要从事于服务业、务工及职工;依据活动轨迹与接触史可划分为输入型、混合型和扩散型3个感染群体,扩散型感染者占总体的85.48%;疫情发展可划分为外源输入型增长期、省内扩散型增长期和内外控制型稳定期3个阶段,疫情空间分布呈"西南-东北"走向和"赣北重于赣中赣南、南昌-新余两极突出"的格局;人口聚集程度、同外界交流互通的强度、与疫情重灾区的距离是影响疫情分布的主要因素。结论江西省COVID-19确诊病例性别分布均衡,中青年、服务业从事人员为主要群体;时间上"先快后慢",空间上异质性显著;人口聚集程度、流动强度及总体疫情格局是影响疫情分布的关键。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics,spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Jiangxi Province.Methods Text analysis was used to extract epidemiological information,ArcGIS 10.3 was performed to capture the evolution,spatial analysis method was applied to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics,and Partial Least Square(PLS)estimation was used to analyze the influencing factors of the epidemic distribution.Results In Jiangxi Province,930 cases have been confirmed in total,with young and middle-aged people accounting for the most(60.40%),and the service industry,migrant workers and labors accounted for the largest proportion.According to the activity track and contact history,the cases can be divided into three types:imported,mixed and diffuse.The diffuse cases account for 85.48%of the total.The development of the epidemic can be divided into three stages:import period,diffusion period and control period.The spatial distribution of the epidemic showed the pattern of"southwest-northeast"and"the northern part of Jiangxi was more heavily affected than the southern and middle part of Jiangxi,with high primary ratio in Nanchang-Xinyu".Population concentration,the intensity of communication and the distance from the worst-hit area were the main factors affecting the distribution of the epidemic.Conclusions The gender distribution of confirmed cases was balanced,with young and middle-aged people as the main group.The epidemic had great influence on service industry.The epidemic developed with the pattern of"rapid increase followed by slow decrease",and with significant spatial heterogeneity.Population concentration and mobility as well as the overall epidemic pattern were the key factors affecting the epidemic distribution.
作者
高兴
李钢
王皎贝
徐婷婷
张晓涵
宁乾
GAO Xing;LI Gang;WANG Jiao-bei;XU Ting-ting;ZHANG Xiao-han;NING Qian(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Xi′an 710127,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期411-415,482,共6页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
西北大学防治新型冠状病毒肺炎紧急科研专项引导基金(2020)
西北大学“仲英青年学者”支持计划(2016)。
关键词
新型冠状病毒肺炎
流行病学特征
时空演化
影响因素
江西省
COVID-19
Epidemiological characteristics
Spatiotemporal evolution
Influencing factors
Jiangxi Province
作者简介
通讯作者:李钢,E-mail:lig@nwu.edu.cn。
