摘要
为了探寻高铁开通能否抑制雾霾污染以及这种抑制作用在不同城市空间形态下是否存在异质性,本文首先分析了高铁和城市蔓延对雾霾污染的作用机制,在利用LandScan数据测算2003—2016年中国281个地级市城市蔓延指标的基础上,采用动态空间面板模型检验了城市蔓延与雾霾污染的空间动态关系。借助双重差分(DID)模型验证了高铁开通对雾霾污染的影响,并探究了不同城市蔓延程度、不同城市规模和不同地区间是否存在异质性影响。最后从拥堵缓解效应和交通替代效应两个维度检验了高铁开通对抑制雾霾污染的作用机制。研究发现:(1)城市蔓延对雾霾污染的直接影响和空间溢出效应均显著为正。(2)高铁开通显著抑制了雾霾污染,且该抑制作用具有持续性。每增设一个高铁站或一条高铁路线,将分别降低雾霾污染程度0.7%和1.3%。(3)蔓延水平越高、规模越大的城市,高铁对雾霾污染的抑制作用越强;南方地区的抑制作用显著高于北方。(4)高铁通过对公共交通和民航交通的替代效应以及拥堵缓解效应抑制雾霾污染。
In order to find out whether high-speed rail operation can inhibit haze pollution and whether this inhibition shows certain heterogeneity under different urban spatial patterns and population density,this paper first analyzes the mechanism of high-speed rail opening and urban sprawl on haze pollution.We calculate the urban sprawl indicators of 281 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2003 to 2016 by using the LandScan data,and then use the dynamic spatial panel model to verify the spatial dynamic relationship between urban sprawl and haze pollution.Second,this paper uses the Difference-In-Difference(DID)model to verify the impact of high-speed rail opening on haze pollution,and further explores the heterogeneous effect of urban high-speed rail on haze pollution between cities with high and low urban sprawl levels,cities with large and small population sizes,and cities belong to the south and north regions.In order to ensure the reliability of the empirical results,this paper conducts a parallel trend test and a placebo test,and further uses the Propensity Score Matching-DID(PSM-DID)method to test the robustness.Finally,this paper analyzes the mechanism of high-speed rail on haze pollution from the perspective of congestion mitigation effect and transport substitution effect.The results suggest that:(1)The direct effect and the spatial spillover effect of urban sprawl on haze pollution are both significantly positive.(2)The opening of high-speed rail significantly inhibits haze pollution.The inhibition effect of high-speed rail opening on haze pollution is increasing year by year,especially in the first two years after the high-speed rail is opened.Each new high-speed rail station or new high-speed railway line will reduce the haze pollution level by about 0.7%and 1.3%respectively,and the marginal effect has an increasing trend.(3)The impact of high-speed rail opening on haze pollution is heterogeneous.Among them,the higher the urban sprawl level and the larger the city size,the more significant the inhibition effect of high-speed rail on haze pollution.The inhibition effect of haze pollution by high-speed rail in the southern region is more obvious than that in the northern region.(4)Highspeed rail can significantly alleviate road traffic congestion.The substitution effects of highspeed rail on highway public transportation and civil aviation transportation are both significant.
作者
范建双
周琳
虞晓芬
FAN Jianshuang;ZHOU Lin;YU Xiaofen(School of Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China;China Academy of Housing&Real Estate,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期1146-1164,共19页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71774142)
教育部人文社科项目(17YJAZH022)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(18JZD033)
浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ20G030002)
浙江省属高校基本科研业务费专项资金(GB201901002)。
关键词
高速铁路
城市蔓延
雾霾污染
拥堵缓解效应
交通替代效应
high-speed rail
urban sprawl
haze pollution
congestion mitigation effect
transport substitution effect
作者简介
范建双(1980-),男,辽宁盖州人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为房价、土地利用政策与碳排放。E-mail:fjshmy@zjut.edu.cn。
