摘要
南海局势近两年不断发酵,三类矛盾或博弈非常明显:中美间的战略竞争,中国和部分东南亚国家的主权和海洋权益之争,以及地区海洋规则和秩序竞争。这三类矛盾和竞争相互交织、相互影响。中美间的战略竞争已经超越了传统的海洋争议问题,上升为影响南海局势的首要矛盾;在海洋争议问题上,海洋权益之争的热度超越了岛礁主权争端。短期内,这些矛盾都很难得到实质性缓解,还可能继续加剧,南海形势确实存在失控的风险。鉴于此,中国既要看到形势的严峻性和紧迫性,又要看到矛盾的复杂性和长期性,保持战略定力,设立合理目标,实施积极措施,在与各方的积极互动中谋求管控和缓解三大矛盾的可行路径。
The situation in the South China Sea has been fermenting in recent two years,and three kinds of contradictions or games are very obvious:the strategic competition between China and the United States,the dispute over the sovereignty and maritime rights and interests between China and some Southeast Asian countries,and the regional maritime rules and order competition.They are intertwined and influence each other.The China-U.S.strategic competition has gone beyond the traditional maritime disputes and become the primary contradiction affecting the situation in the South China Sea;and influence of the dispute over maritime rights and interests has exceeded the sovereignty dispute over islands and reefs.In the short term,these contradictions are difficult to be substantially alleviated and may continue to intensify.There is a real risk that the situation in the South China Sea will get out of control.In view of this,China should not only be aware of the severity and urgency of the situation,but also see the complexity and long-term nature of the contradictions.It should also maintain its strategic focus,set reasonable goals,adopt positive measures,and seek a feasible path to control and alleviate the three major contradictions in its active interaction with all parties.
出处
《学术前沿》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期66-72,共7页
Frontiers
关键词
南海
中美战略竞争
海洋争议
军事冲突
危机管控
South China Sea
China-US strategic competition
maritime disputes
military conflicts
crisis management and control
作者简介
胡波﹐北京大学海洋战略研究中心主任﹑研究员。研究方向为海洋战略与政策.主要著作有《2049年的中国海上权力∶海洋强国崛起之路》《后马汉时代的中国海权》《Chinese Maritime Power in the 21st Century》等。
