摘要
研究对中国对外直接投资的风险进行分析与评价,选用2010—2018年的面板数据,采用动态因子模型分析中国对"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资的风险。研究发现:就国别角度来看,2018年,新加坡是"一带一路"沿线国家中直接投资风险最低的国家,阿富汗投资风险最高。就区域角度来看,中东欧地区的直接投资风险最低,南亚的直接投资风险最高;从动态发展的角度来看,"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资风险得分情况在2010—2018年间变化的波动幅度不大,整体趋于稳定。近几年国际形势变幻莫测,各国的直接投资风险可能持续增大。因此建议投资者对"一带一路"沿线国家投资时,合理规划投资结构,重视政治体制和经济发展的稳定性,以及加强对外直接投资风险的评估机制。
This study analyzes and evaluates the risks of China’s direct foreign investment and by selecting the panel data from 2010 to 2018 and using the dynamic factor model,analyzes China’s direct investment risks in"Belt and Road"countries.It is found that from the perspective of countries,Singapore is the one with the lowest direct investment risk among"Belt and Road"countries in 2018 while Afghanistan is the country with the highest investment risk;from the perspective of areas,the direct investment risk in Central and Eastern Europe is the lowest while that in South Asia is the highest;and from the perspective of dynamic development,the direct investment risk scores of the"Belt and Road"countries fluctuate little from 2010 to 2018,tending to be stable as a whole.The international situation is unpredictable in recent years,and the direct investment risk in various countries may continue to increase.Therefore,it is suggested that the investors should plan the investment structure rationally,pay attention to the stability of the political system and economic development,and strengthen the risk assessment mechanism of direct foreign investment when they invest in the"Belt and Road"countries.
作者
胡颖
王思琪
HU Ying;WANG Siqi(School of International Business and Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)
出处
《山东财经大学学报》
2021年第2期91-100,共10页
Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“以中哈产能合作促进区域命运共同体建设研究”(18XGJ002)
新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目“基于动态因子模型的中国对‘一带一路’沿线国家直接投资风险评价与防范”(XJUFE2019K039)。
关键词
“走出去”战略
高质量发展
风险识别
风险防范
投资风险评价体系
going global strategy
high-quality development
risk identification
risk prevention
investment risk evaluation system
作者简介
胡颖,女,新疆乌鲁木齐人,博士,新疆财经大学国际经贸学院教授,研究方向:中国与中亚国家区域经济合作。
