摘要
利用社会网络分析方法,对2013—2017年"一带一路"沿线国家的能源消费空间关联关系及其角色演变进行考察。研究发现:①"一带一路"合作对网络内各国间能源消费联系的促进作用仍然较弱;但从时间趋势看,沿线国家能源消费网络关联性逐年增强,在网络中的地位渐趋平等,网络稳定性得以提升,这有利于减少沿线能源贸易的不确定性,降低能源风险。②卡塔尔、俄罗斯、埃及、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和中国处于能源消费空间关联网络的核心地位,对其他国家有较大影响。③"一带一路"合作部分打破了以往板块间"各自为营"的局面,各板块间能源消费联系增强,能源风险随之下降。随着"一带一路"的深化,爱沙尼亚、白俄罗斯、波兰等东欧国家由"双向溢出"角色变为"净溢出"角色,而其他板块原有属性得到加强。④"一带一路"能源消费空间关联网络具有明显的空间溢出效应,增强各国在网络内地位的平等性和降低网络效率在一定程度上可以促进沿线整体能源强度的下降,提升沿线能源消费的空间公平性。本研究对于厘清"一带一路"沿线国家的能源消费空间关联性及其角色演化,提升对沿线能源风险防范能力,以推动未来能源合作走深走实具有重要的现实意义及理论价值。
The social network analysis methods is used to investigate the spatial correlation and role evolution of energy consumption in countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2013 to 2017. The research found that:①The current"Belt and Road"cooperation still has a weak effect on promoting energy consumption links among countries in the network. However,from the perspective of time trends,the relevance of energy consumption networks of countries along the route has increased year by year,their status in the network has gradually become equal,and network stability has been improved. This is conducive to reducing the uncertainty of energy trade along the route and reducing energy risks. ②Qatar,Russia,Egypt,Pakistan,Bangladesh,and China are at the core of the spatial correlation network of energy consumption and have a greater impact on other countries.③The"Belt and Road"cooperation partly broke the previous situation of"separate business"among the sectors. The energy consumption links between the sectors have been strengthened,and the energy risk will decrease accordingly. With the deepening of the"Belt and Road"initiative,Eastern European countries such as Estonia,Belarus,and Poland have changed from a"two-way overflow"role to a "net overflow"role,while the original attributes of other sectors have been strengthened. ④The"Belt and Road"energy consumption spatial correlation network has obvious spatial spillover effects. Enhancing the equality of the status of countries in the network and reducing the efficiency of the network can to a certain extent promote the decline of the overall energy intensity along the route and improve the spatial equity of energy consumption along the route. This research has important practical significance and theoretical value for clarifying the spatial relevance and role evolution of energy consumption in countries along the "Belt and Road",improving the ability to prevent energy risks along the route,and promoting future energy cooperation.
作者
刘自敏
韩威鹏
张娅
Liu Zimin;Han Weipeng;Zhang Ya(School of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2020年第12期10-22,共13页
Coal Economic Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603218)
重庆市社会科学规划项目(2020ZDJJ02)
重庆市发展改革委研究课题(FGWXSW2020-1-9)。
关键词
一带一路
能源消费
社会网络分析
空间关联关系
角色演变
the"Belt and Road"
energy consumption
social network analysis
spatial correlation
role evolution
作者简介
刘自敏(1981-),男,四川德阳人,博士,教授,研究方向为能源经济,规制与竞争.E-mail:ziminliu@126.com。
