摘要
研究新疆旅游业发展在经济发展中的推动作用,使用新疆1993-2018年实际国际旅游外汇收入、实际GDP、实际第三产业增加值的时间序列数据,运用ADF检验、协整检验、VAR模型和granger因果检验等计量方法对其进行实证研究。结果表明:选取的各变量间存在协整关系,同时各变量之间互为因果,且从整体来看,新疆旅游发展对经济增长具有显著的拉动作用,但其拉动作用小于经济增长对旅游发展的推动作用。
In order to study the role of the development of tourism in economic activities in xinjiang,this paper USES the time series data of xinjiang's actual foreign exchange income from international tourism from 1993 to 2018,the real GDP and the added value of the tertiary industry,and conducts an empirical study by using the ADF test,co-integration test,VAR model,granger causality test and other measurement methods.The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the selected variables,at the same time between various variables causal,and on the whole,the development of xinjiang tourism has significant stimulating effect on economic growth,but its role is less than the growth of tourism development.
作者
蔡伟杰
Cai weijie(South-Central University for Nationalities,School of economics,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《科技创业月刊》
2021年第1期52-56,共5页
Journal of Entrepreneurship in Science & Technology
基金
中南民族大学研究生学术创新基金项目(3212019sycxjj165)。
关键词
旅游发展
VAR模型
因果检验
经济增长
Tourism Development
VAR Model
Causality Test
Economic Growth
作者简介
蔡伟杰(1994-),男,中南民族大学经济学院硕士研究生,研究方向:宏观经济。
