摘要
立足汽车行业,整理我国2005—2019年有关汽车保有量的相关面板数据,使用PCA方法分析,确定营运公交数、轨道交通公里数、公路里程数、城市化率、汽车报废量、社会消费品零售总额、汽车销售量、人均GDP、国民生产总值9项因素为汽车保有量影响因素。利用PCA分析后得出的7项主要影响因素构建汽车保有量综合影响指标M,借鉴国际上通用的饱和指标,结合Compertz曲线模型对我国未来20年汽车保有量的发展趋势进行预测,结合实际情况测算出我国汽车保有量。该模型由于引入综合影响指标M,所以在预测过程中考虑到更多的参数影响,提高预测精度。结果显示:我国汽车保有量已经在沿着Compertz曲线的轨迹发展,但并没有达到饱和点,即将处于成熟期,2031年汽车保有量将达到3.5亿辆。
Based on the perspective of the automotive industry,this paper has compiled relevant panel data on the number of vehicles in China in the past 15 years from 2005 to 2019,and analyzed the PCA method to determine the number of operating buses,mileage of rail transit,highway miles,urbanization rate,total retail sales of consumer goods,car sale volume,volume of in use vehicles,real per capita GDP,and gross national product,are the influencing factors of car ownership.And the seven main influencing factors obtained after PCA analysis are used to construct a comprehensive impact index M for car ownership.In view of the internationally-used saturation indicators,a Compertz curve model is used to predict the development trend of China's car ownership in the next 20 years,calculating China's car ownership based on China's actual conditions.The model introduces a comprehensive influence index M,which can take into account the influence of more parameters in the forecasting process and improve the accuracy of forecasting.The result shows that China’s car ownership has been developing along the Compertz curve,but it has not reached the saturation point,and it is about to be in a mature period.The car ownership will reach 350 million in 2031.
作者
杜丹丰
贾金航
DU Danfeng;JIA Jinhang(College of Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin150040,China)
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2021年第1期47-53,共7页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51972050)。
作者简介
第一作者简介:杜丹丰(1972-),男,教授,博士,研究方向:汽车节能减排.
