摘要
为研究1992—2018年中国猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和禽肉进口市场结构变动方向是否有益于中国肉类产品长期稳定进口,在测算分散度指数、结构变化指数和匹配性指数的基础上,通过分离出市场结构因素的恒定市场份额模型进一步分析了中国肉类进口市场结构变动效应。研究结果表明,中国牛肉、羊肉和禽肉的进口来源高度集中;猪肉、牛肉和禽肉的进口市场结构不断优化,但猪肉和牛肉进口市场结构的优化过程较不稳定,羊肉的进口市场结构呈现恶化趋势;恒定市场份额模型分解结果表明,金融危机以前进口市场结构因素促进了中国肉类进口增长,金融危机以后的进口市场结构因素则制约着中国肉类产品进口增长。在此基础上,本文提出与更多新兴国家建立贸易伙伴关系进而调整肉类产品进口市场结构、适当收购国外牧场等政策建议。
To study whether the structural changes in Chin a’s pork, beef, mutton and poultry import market structure from 1992 to 2018 are beneficial to the long-term stable import of Chinese meat products, based on the measurement of the dispersion index, structural change index and matching index, using the constant market share model which separates the market structure factors further analyzes the effect of changes in the structure of Chin a’s meat import market.The results show that China’s import market of beef, mutton and poultry are highly concentrated;the import market structure of pork, beef and poultry are continuously optimized, while the import market structure of mutton is showing a deteriorating trend.It is worth noting that the optimization process of pork and beef import market structure are relatively unstable.The decomposition result of the constant market share model shows that before the financial crisis the structure of the import market promoted the growth of Chin a’s meat imports, and after the financial crisis the structure of the import market restricted the growth of Chin a’s meat imports.Finally, it puts forward policy recommendations such as establishing trade partnerships with more emerging countries to adjust import markets, and appropriately purchasing foreign ranches.
作者
王如玉
肖海峰
WANG Ruyu;XIAO Haifeng
出处
《世界农业》
CSSCI
2020年第12期4-11,127,共9页
World Agriculture
基金
农业农村部和财政部项目(CARS-39-22)。
作者简介
第一作者:王如玉(1990-),博士研究生,E-mail:ruyu_wang@163.com;通信作者:肖海峰(1964-)男,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:农产品市场与政策研究,E-mail:haifengxiao@cau.edu.cn。
