摘要
针对双线铁路中间站多速度等级列车越行方式多样性和相邻列车间隔时间适应性,建立了基于改进概率分析法和组合权重法的到发线数量配置模型。基于相邻列车到达间隔形成的越行条件概率,研究了多个列车到达间隔形成的越行条件概率F(t″),又通过对运行列车组分布特性的相关系数γ取值绝对值化,提出了改进概率分析法,分析了不同越行工况的发生概率;考虑列车越行、列车作业时间因素对到发线数量配置的影响,通过数形结合思想,得出不同影响因素条件下的到发线数量;综合考虑越行工况的主客观影响,建立了基于加权权重偏差取极小值的组合赋权模型,得到双线铁路中间站到发线数量。通过调研铁路中间站验证了该方法既能准确确定越行工况发生概率,从而判断越行难度大小,又能考虑工程投资、运输组织等,为相关设计人员提供参考。同时,参数扰动反映了速差和高等级列车开行对数对到发线数量配置敏感度较高。
According to the diversity of overcrossing modes of trains with multiple speed classes and time adaptability of the interval between neighboring trains in a two-lane railroad intermediate station,an improved probabilistic analysis and combined weight method are used to develop a model for the number of arrivals and departures.Based on the probability of overrunning conditions formed by the arrival intervals of neighboring trains,the probability F(t″)of overrunning conditions formed by multiple train arrival intervals is studied,and the probability of occurrence of different overrunning conditions is analyzed by taking absolute values of the correlation coefficientsγof the distribution characteristics of running train sets and proposing an improved probability analysis method.The number of arrivals and departures under different influencing factors is obtained by considering influences of train over-traffic and train operating time factors through numeral-figure combination.Considering subjective and objective influences of the overrunning conditions,a combined weighting model based on the minimum variance is established to obtain the number of the arrival-departure line of a two-lane railroad inter⁃mediate station.By investigating intermediate stations,it is verified that the method can not only accurately determine the probability and difficulty of overrunning conditions,but also consider project investment and transportation organization,etc.,providing references for relevant designers.Meanwhile,the parameter disturbance reflects the high sensitivity of the speed difference and the number of high-level trains to the number of arrival-departure lines.
作者
陈龙
朱昌锋
刘道宽
CHEN Long;ZHU Changfeng;LIU Daokuan(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co.,Ltd,Wuhan 430063,China)
出处
《交通信息与安全》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期42-49,83,共9页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71961016)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJAZH148)资助。
关键词
双线铁路
中间站到发线
概率分析法
组合权重
列车作业时间
two-lane railroad
arrival-departure line in intermediate station
probabilistic analysis
combined weight
train operation time
作者简介
第一作者:陈龙(1994-),硕士研究生.研究方向:交通运输规划与管理、铁路站场设计.E-mail:1508367543@qq.com;通信作者:朱昌锋(1972-),博士,教授.研究方向:交通运输组织优化、铁路货物运输等.E-mail:cfzhu003@163.com。
