摘要
本文以可行能力理论为理论框架,基于2018年上海市居住证评估调查数据,采用Probit模型,研究了大城市内部流动人口主观市民化能力对其城市居留意愿的影响。研究结果表明:主观市民化能力显著提升了流动人口的城市居留意愿,利用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)控制选择性偏差后,本文的研究结论依然稳健。分组回归结果表明,主观市民化能力对城市居留意愿的影响在不同代际流动人口中存在差异,其对第一代流动人口城市居留意愿的影响大于第二代流动人口。中介效应检验结果表明,主观市民化能力通过作用于流动人口的居住证办理行为显著提高了其在城市长期居留的意愿。研究结论有助于理解我国大城市流动人口市民化的路径机制,对大城市居住证制度乃至户籍制度改革具有一定的启示意义。
Based on Sen’s Capability Theory,using the data of Shanghai Residence Permit Evaluation Survey in 2018,this paper studies the impact of subjective citizenship capability on the residence intention of floating population in Shanghai by using the Probit model.The results show that subjective citizenship capability can significantly improve the residential willingness of the floating population,which is still significant after controlling the selectivity bias.In grouping regression,the results show that subjective citizenship capability has a greater impact on the old generation migrants than the new generation ones.In addition,the mediating effect analysis shows that the subjective citizenship capability also significantly improves the floating population’s willingness to stay in the city through the residence permit handling behavior.The research conclusion is helpful to understand the path mechanism of the floating population’s citizenship in China,and has certain enlightenment significance for the reform of the residence permit system and even the household registration system in big cities.
作者
汪然
李挺
Wang Ran;Li Ting(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《上海经济》
2020年第6期44-58,共15页
Shanghai Economy
关键词
流动人口
城市居留意愿
居住证
主观市民化能力
Floating Population
Residence Intention
Residence Permit
Subjective Citizenship Capability
作者简介
汪然,复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,研究方向:人口与发展经济学;李挺,复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,研究方向:社会流动与分层。
