摘要
In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies,an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission.To this end,we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity,which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification.The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions.Further,the global energy interconnection(GEI)scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2℃goal of the Paris Agreement.By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis,the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed.Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions,whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction.A numerical analysis,performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions,suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions,thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future.Moreover,the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.
基金
This work was supported by the Science and Technology Foundation of GEIGC(101662227)
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018 YFB0905000).
作者简介
Zhiyuan Ma received her B.E.degree from the Shandong University of Science and Technology,Shandong,China,in 2011 and her M.S.and Ph.D.degrees in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 2014 and 2018,respectively.She is currently working at the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO).Her research interests include climate change mitigation,energy,and power systems.zhiyuan-ma@geidco.org;Shining Zhang received his B.E.and Master degree from Hunan University,Hunan,China,in 2010 and 2013,respectively.He received his Ph.D.degree from the University of Tokyo,Tokyo,Japan in 2016.He is currently working at the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO).His research interests include global energy strategic planning,climate change,and renewable power generation technology.shining-zhang@geidco.org;Fangxin Hou received her B.E.degree from Zhejiang University,Zhejiang,China,in 2013,and her Ph.D.degree in nuclear science and technology from Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 2018.She is currently working at the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO).Her research interests include energy system modeling,clean energy technology,climate change mitigation,etc.fangxin-hou@geidco.org;Xin Tan received his B.S.degree from Beijing Institute of Technology,and his M.S.and Ph.D.degrees from the State University of New York at Buffalo,Buffalo,US,in 2018.He is currently working at the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO).His research interests include communications in smart grids,interdisciplinary research in energy and climate,and interconnection of power grids.xin-tan@geidco.org;Fengying Zhang received his B.E.and Ph.D.degrees in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 2000 and 2006,respectively.He is currently a Director of the Research Division of General Office at the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO).His research interests include strategic planning and policy research on energy and power systems.fengying-zhang@geidco.orgaaq;Fang Yang received her B.E.and Ph.D.degrees in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 2004 and 2010,respectively.She is currently an Acting Division Director of the Climate Change&Environment Research Division at the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO).Her research interests include climate change,energy and power systems,and environmental research.fang-yang1@geidco.org;Fei Guo received his M.S.in building science from Tsinghua University,Beijing,China and his Ph.D degree in energy and environmental policy from the University of Delaware,US.He is a research scholar with the Energy(ENE)Program at IIASA.His main research interests include dynamic energy efficiency potential analysis,modeling energy demand in the building sector,consumer discrete choice models,heterogeneous household behaviors in energy use,and climate and energy policy assessment through the MESSAGEix-a global Integrated Assessment Model(IAM).guof@iiasa.ac.at.
