摘要
实现低碳战略目标需要大规模应用若干关键减缓技术,可能会带来经济、社会、环境等方面的潜在影响,反过来不利于实现低碳目标。提出了技术成熟度、经济影响、局地环境影响、生态影响、人群健康影响和公众接受度6个维度的综合成本效益分析框架,筛选影响减缓气候变化的供给侧技术,识别出风电和光伏发电、碳捕集与封存、生物质能、氢能、核能5种关键技术,重点讨论了其综合成本效益分析维度,得出以下结论:一、传统仅考虑技术成本和减排潜力的成本效益分析难以支撑制定中长期减缓技术战略和部署方案;综合考虑技术的就业、局地环境、生态、健康影响及公众接受度等因素,可以改进技术的潜力、成本有效性和空间布局等评估维度的系统性和可操作性,有利于促进实现碳减排目标与可持续发展目标过程中的协同增效。二、相对于需求侧减缓技术及基于土地的减缓行为,供给侧减缓技术的综合成本效益分析不确定性更大且更为复杂。三、目前对供给侧减缓技术的技术成熟度和经济影响的研究较多且结论较为确定,对局地环境影响和人群健康影响的研究逐渐增加且方法趋于成熟,但对技术的生态影响和社会公众接受度的影响研究仍然较少且较难得出确定的结论。
Achieving low-carbon strategic goals requires large-scale application of several key mitigation technologies,which may bring potential impacts in economic,social,and environmental aspects,which in turn is not conducive to achieving low-carbon goals.A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis framework has been proposed for the evaluation of key mitigation technologies underlying the low carbon strategy.This framework comprises six aspects,i.e.,technological maturity,economic impacts,local environmental impacts,ecological impacts,human health impacts,and public acceptance.Several supply-side mitigation technologies have been identified and listed,including wind and photovoltaic power generation,carbon capture and storage,biomass,hydrogen and nuclear technologies.Moreover,several key aspects of these technologies are analyzed.We found that comprehensive cost-benefit analysis is beneficial for improving the operability of planning the pathway of the low-carbon technology development and for promoting the synergies between carbon reduction and sustainable development goals.The comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of the key supply-side mitigation technologies is more uncertain and more complex than that of the demand-side mitigation technologies or land-based mitigation activities.Among the current research studies of comprehensive analysis of supply-side mitigation technologies,several studies have focused on the technology improvement and their economic impacts and certain conclusions have been drawn.Increasing number of studies are now focusing on the local environmental and health impacts,and the methods tend to improve.However,only few studies focus on the ecological impacts and the public acceptance,and the conclusions are uncertain.
作者
赵一冰
蔡闻佳
丛建辉
宋欣珂
张雅欣
李明煜
李晋
翁宇威
王灿
ZHAO Yibing;CAI Wenjia;CONG Jianhui;SONG Xinke;ZHANG Yaxin;LI Mingyu;LI Jin;WENG Yuwei;WANG Can(School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China;Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development,Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi Province,China)
出处
《全球能源互联网》
2020年第4期319-327,共9页
Journal of Global Energy Interconnection
基金
国家杰出青年科学基金项目“碳减排影响机制与政策”(71525007)
清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院、能源基金会联合项目“中国低碳发展转型战略及路径”。
关键词
成本效益分析
减缓技术
生态环境影响
可再生能源发电
碳捕集与封存
生物质能
氢能
cost-benefit analysis
carbon mitigation technology
ecological and environmental impact
renewable power generation
carbon capture and storage
biomass energy
hydrogen energy
作者简介
赵一冰(1993),男,博士研究生,研究方向为可再生能源、气候变化经济学与低碳政策,E-mail:zyb16@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn。;通信作者:王灿(1974),男,教授,研究方向为全球气候变化经济学与政策、能源环境经济系统模拟与分析、低碳经济与低碳城市,E-mail:canwang@tsinghua.edu.cn。
