摘要
国际经济金融环境复杂多变,中国经济遭遇"三期叠加",企业经营潜在风险加大。近年来上市公司信用违约事件频发,企业集团风险不断暴露,引起社会高度关注。由此,解析企业集团信用风险形成机制,防范和化解信用风险传染,夯实风险治理微观基础十分紧迫。本文基于复杂网络理论,分析企业集团网络结构特征,研究异质性个体信用风险形成和传染机理及路径;并源于异质性个体的经验数据,对企业集团信用风险传染与风险外溢效应进行实证分析。研究发现:一是异质性个体的信用风险具有较强的传染性,且企业集团高密度、低中心型网络结构放大了风险传染效应;二是企业集团网络系统内部风险传染效应大于外溢效应,且风险传染效应及传染时间与企业间网络联结程度及路径长度相关;三是"去杠杆"与网络节点间的风险隔绝是抑制信用风险传染的重要举措,企业集团对异质性个体的引导、救助以及风险隔绝,对于防范企业集团信用风险传染与外溢具有重要作用。
The international economic and financial environment is complex and changeable.China’s economy has encountered the"three-phase superposition",and the potential risks of corporate operations have increased.In recent years,the frequent occurrence of credit default incidents of listed companies and the continuous exposure of corporate group risks have aroused great attention from the society.Therefore,it is urgent to analyzes the credit risk formation mechanism of enterprise groups,prevent and defuse credit risk contagion,and consolidate the micro foundation of risk governance.Based on the complex network theory,this paper analyzes the characteristics of enterprise group network structure,studies the mechanism and path of heterogeneous individual credit risk formation and contagion;and based on the empirical data of heterogeneous individuals,conducts empirical research on enterprise group credit risk contagion and risk spillover effects analysis.The study found that:First,the credit risk of heterogeneous individuals is highly contagious,and the high-density,low-centric network structure of enterprise groups amplifies the risk contagion effect;second,the internal risk contagion effect of the enterprise group network system is greater than the spillover effect.And the risk contagion effect and contagion time are related to the degree of network connection between enterprises and the length of the path;third,"deleveraging"and risk isolation between network nodes is an important measure to restrain credit risk contagion.Enterprise groups guide and guide heterogeneous individuals.Relief and risk isolation play an important role in preventing contagion and spillover of enterprise group credit risks.
作者
张金林
李健
ZHANG Jin-lin;LI Jian(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第10期119-136,共18页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY250)。
关键词
企业集团网络
异质性个体
网络结构
传染效应
风险治理
enterprise group network
heterogeneous individuals
network structure
contagion effect
risk management
作者简介
张金林(1964-),男,湖北蕲春人,中南财经政法大学教授、博士生导师。研究方向:金融风险管理、金融科技;通讯作者:李健。
