摘要
对未来1年内发生强震的预测在做好备灾应急准备和防震减灾工作上具有重要的现实需求.为反映近年来国际上关于1年尺度地震预测模型研究的进展,本文系统地整理了地震的统计概率预测模型、物理预测模型和混合预测模型,并从方法原理、预测效能评价、部署应用等角度进行了梳理.研究表明,目前国际上发展的1年尺度地震预测模型及其效能评价使用的参考模型的总体数量较少、建模原理主要基于G-R关系等统计学基本定律,显示该领域在基础理论架构、关键技术体系上并未足够成熟,这可能与相应的地震发生机理解释尚不完善、建立数理化的预测模型尚有困难等因素有关.
The next-year earthquake forecasts have an important practical demand in preparedness and mitigation of earthquake disasters.In order to reflect the research progress of 1-year earthquake forecast models in the world in recent years,we systematically organized the earthquake probabilistic forecast models,physics-based forecast models and hybrid forecast models,and analyzed them from the perspectives of method principle,evaluation of forecasting efficiency,deployment and application.The results show that the total number of 1-year earthquake forecast models and their reference models in the world is relatively small.Moreover,the modeling principle is mainly based on the basic laws of statistical seismology such as the G-R relationship,which indicates that the basic theoretical framework and key technical system of earthquake forecasts has not been mature enough.It may be related to the imperfect interpretation of the corresponding earthquake seismogenic mechanism and the difficulties of the establishment of physics-based forecast models.
作者
尹凤玲
蒋长胜
姜丛
Yin Fengling;Jiang Changsheng;Jiang Cong(Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《地球与行星物理论评》
2021年第1期54-60,共7页
Reviews of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
基金
国家重点研发计划课题资助项目(2018YFC1503400)
中国地震局重大政策理论与实践问题研究课题资助(CEAZY2020ZL06)。
关键词
年尺度地震预测
预测模型
统计检验
预测效能
next-year earthquake forecasts
earthquake forecast model
statistical test
efficiency of earthquake forecasting
作者简介
第一作者:尹凤玲(1984-),女,副研究员,主要从事地球动力学数值模拟和地震危险性分析研究.E-mail:yinfengling@cea-igp.ac.cn;通讯作者:蒋长胜(1979-),男,博士生导师、研究员,主要从事地震监测技术和地震预测理论研究.E-mail:jiangcs@cea-igp.ac.cn。
