摘要
经过近两年调整,美国东南亚政策逐渐成型,从着重双边转向双多边并重,从强调安全转向政经并举,从聚焦海洋转向海陆并进,从手段相对单一转向更加多元化。未来,不管是特朗普连任还是拜登当政,美国都将通过增加对地区投入、推进美式民主等方式继续强化东南亚政策,但其能否达到预期政策目标仍受诸多因素制约,尤其是美国霸权与东盟“中心性”之间的矛盾。美国自身能力和所能够投入的资源今非昔比,若不能在平等基础上尊重东南亚国家利益,强行控制东南亚,将其作为地缘战略竞争工具,则美国东南亚政策可能成为“烂尾工程”。
After nearly two years of adjustment,the US Southeast Asia policy has gradually taken shape,shifting from focusing on bilateral relations to placing equal emphasis on both bilateral and multilateral ones,from emphasizing security to highlighting both politics and economy,from mainly paying attention to sea to focusing on both land and sea,and with the policy means changing from single to more diversified.In the future,whether Trump or Biden is elected,the US will continue to strengthen its Southeast Asia policy by increasing multilateral investment in the region and promoting American democracy.However,whether it can achieve its expected objectives is still restricted by many factors,especially the contradiction between the US hegemony and ASEAN Centrality.The United States’own capabilities and resources that can be invested are not what it used to be.If it fails to respect the interests of Southeast Asian countries on the basis of equality,but to forcibly control them and use them as a tool for geostrategic competition,the US Southeast Asia policy may become a“unfinished project”.
出处
《国际问题研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期60-76,139,共18页
International Studies
作者简介
刘卿,中国国际问题研究院副院长、研究员。
