摘要
降低化肥投入量是我国农业转型发展热点问题之一,也是顺利实现农业绿色发展关键所在。研究利用1978~2016年30省份面板数据,建立空间杜宾模型(SDM)分析化肥投入量对粮食产量空间溢出效应。研究表明,化肥投入量存在显著正空间相关性,呈现地理位置上的空间集聚;从时间维度看,随着农村交通、网络等发展,农民个体影响因素在邻近地区间传导更频繁;从空间维度看,中部区和粮食主产区是化肥投入量空间溢出效应最显著区域,也是降低化肥投入量重点关注区域。基于此,提出加强地区间化肥使用情况交流与沟通,发挥农业技术协同效应,针对中部区和粮食主产区制定化肥使用政策,根据土壤性质、种植作物设定化肥投入量最高限额,建立化肥使用监督机制等政策建议。
How to reduce the input of the agricultural fertilizer in China was one of the hot issues in the transformation and development of the agriculture,and also the key to realize the green development of the agriculture.On the basis of expounding the spatial spillover mechanism of the agricultural fertilizer input,the spatial spillover effect of the agricultural fertilizer input on grain yield was analyzed by establishing spatial Doberman model(SDM)based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1978 to 2016.The results showed that:firstly,there was a significant positive spatial correlation between agricultural fertilizer inputs in China,showing spatial agglomeration in geographical locations.Secondly,from the perspective of time,with the development of rural transportation and network,the transmission of individual farmers'influencing factors between neighboring areas would become more frequent.Thirdly,from the perspective of spatial dimension,the central region and the main grain producing regions were the regions with the most significant spatial spillover effect of the agricultural fertilizer input,and also the regions that needed to be focused on to reduce the agricultural fertilizer input.Based on this,the exchange and communication of fertilizer using would be strengthened among regions,the synergistic effect of the agricultural technology would be given full play,fertilizer using policies would be formulated for the central region and the main grain producing areas,the highest standard of fertilizer input would be set for plots,according to the soil properties and crops,and the supervision mechanism of the agricultural fertilizer input would be established.
作者
王宏宇
温红梅
杜磊
WANG Hongyu;WEN Hongmei;DU Lei(School of Finance,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin 150028,China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
CSSCI
2020年第4期52-64,共13页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(16BJL037)
哈尔滨商业大学研究生创新科研资金重点项目(YJSCX2018-471HSD)。
作者简介
王宏宇,男,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向:农村金融;通讯作者:温红梅,女,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:农村金融、风险控制。
