摘要
确保粮食安全是稳定经济社会发展的重要基础,也是保证国家长治久安的根本之策。基于2000—2020年中国31个省区市粮食生产面板数据,运用生产集中度指数、核密度估计、重心—标准差椭圆等方法考察中国粮食生产格局的时空演化趋势,并采用空间相关分析法考察中国粮食产量的空间特性,在此基础上建立空间计量模型探究中国粮食生产空间格局演化的驱动机制。研究发现:中国粮食生产存在显著的空间不均衡现象,粮食生产逐步向东北、华中和华东地区集中,粮食生产空间格局整体呈现“南退北进”的演进趋势;中国粮食生产格局具有显著的空间溢出特征,部分省区市的粮食生产空间溢出存在“涟漪效应”和“规模效应”;城镇化发展、化肥投入、机械投入以及政府干预等因素均对粮食生产空间格局演化起到显著的正向作用,自然灾害和经济发展水平的影响效应则显著为负。据此,提出政策建议旨在优化粮食生产布局规划进而确保国家粮食安全。
To ensure food security is an important basis for stable economic and social development,but also to ensure the fundamental policy of long-term peace and stability of the country.Based on the panel data of grain production in 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)of China from 2000 to 2020,the spatial and temporal evolution trend of grain production pattern in China was investigated by using the methods of production concentration index,kernel density estimation and barycentric standard deviation ellipse,and the spatial charac-teristics of grain production in China were investigated by using spatial correlation analysis.On this basis,a spa-tial econometric model was established to explore the driving mechanism of spatial pattern evolution of grain pro-duction in China.The results show that there is a significant spatial imbalance in grain production in China.Grain production is gradually concentrated in Northeast China,Central China and East China,and the overall spatial pat-tern of grain production shows an evolutionary trend of“retreating from the south to the north”.The pattern of grain production in China has significant spatial spillover characteristics,and there are“ripple effect”and“scale effect”in some provinces.Urbanization development,fertilizer input,machinery input and government interven-tion all had significant positive effects on the spatial pattern evolution of grain production,while natural disasters and economic development level had significant negative effects.Therefore,four policy suggestions are put forward to optimize grain production layout planning and ensure national food security.
作者
杜蓉
柳思维
蔡荣
DU Rong;LIU Si-wei;CAI Rong(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210003,Chi-na;School of Economic and Trade,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;Modern Grain Circulation Security Collaborative Innovation Center,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210003,China)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第8期92-102,共11页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“家庭农场经营规模扩张:行为逻辑、潜在效应及效率改进”(72173060)
江苏省研究生科研创新项目“城镇化发展对粮食安全的影响研究”(KYCX21_1446)
南京财经大学服务国家特殊需求博士人才科研专项项目“数字经济视角下粮食流通与消费能力脆弱性的识别及驱动机制研究”(BSZX2021-13)。
关键词
粮食生产
生产格局
重心转移
空间杜宾模型
grain production
production pattern
shifting of gravity center
spatial Durbin model
作者简介
杜蓉,南京财经大学粮食和物资学院博士研究生,研究方向:粮食流通;柳思维,湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院教授,中南大学商学院博士生导师,湖南省文史研究馆馆员,研究方向:市场流通、贸易经济;通讯作者:蔡荣,博士,南京财经大学粮食和物资学院教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:农业经济。
